Research Progress of Forest Fires Spread Trend Forecasting in Heilongjiang Province

Abstract

In order to further grasp the scientific method of forecasting the spreading trend of forest fires in Heilongjiang Province, which is located in Northeast China, the basic concepts of forest fires, a geographical overview of Heilongjiang Province, and an overview of forest fire forecasting are mainly introduced. The calculation and computer simulation of various forest fire spread models are reviewed, and the selected model for forest fires spread in Heilongjiang Province is mainly summarized. The research shows that the Wang Zhengfei–Mao Xianmin model has higher accuracy and is more suitable for the actual situation of Heilongjiang Province. However, few studies over the past three decades have updated the formula. Therefore, this empirical model is mainly analyzed in this paper. The nonlinear least squares method is used to re-fit the wind speed correction coefficient, which gets closer results to the actual values, and the Wang Zhengfei–Mao Xianmin model is rewritten and evaluated for a more precise formula. In addition, a brief overview of the commonly used Rothermel mathematical–physical model and the improved ellipse mathematical model is given, which provides a basis for the improvement of the forest fires spread model in Heilongjiang Province.

Analysis on the Characteristics of Typical Forest Fire Weather Index in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Shanxi Region

“…Fires in the junction area of urban forestry and rural forestry are often a threat to people's lives and property, and large-scale fires can even affect global climate change [5]. Thus, forest fire prevention and extinguishing work is related to social harmony and stability and the overall issue of addressing climate change, which is of great significance to national economic and social development as well as an integral part of the ecological progress [6,7].…”

Forest Fire Spread Simulation and Fire Extinguishing Visualization Research

“…Wang Zhengfei's model is more suitable for China's forest fire simulation and prediction. For example, Wang et al [35] analyzed the model and used the nonlinear least squares method to re-fit the wind speed correction coefficient to obtain a result closer to the actual value. The improvement of the provincial forest fire spread model provides the basis.…”