Research to improve ShakeAlert earthquake early warning products and their utility

Cochran, E. S.; Aagaard, Brad T.; Allen, R. M.; Andrews, Jennifer; Baltay, A.; Barbour, Andrew J.; Bodin, Paul; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Chung, A. I.; Crowell, B. W.; Given, Douglas D.; Hanks, Thomas C.; Hartog, J. Renate; Hauksson, Egill; Heaton, Thomas H.; McBride, Sara K.; Meier, Men‐Andrin; Melgar, Diego; Minson, S. E.; Murray, J. R.; Strauss, J. A.; Toomey, D. R.

doi:10.3133/ofr20181131

Cited by 15 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 16 publications

(24 reference statements)

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“…This growth may require ShakeAlert's communication, and education programs to expand in an effort to continually reach as many people as possible through associated campaigns (McBride et al. , 2020; Cochran et al. , 2018).…”

Section: Shakealert the Eew System In The Usamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The US Geological Survey (USGS) manages the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning (EEW) system for the West Coast of the USA, publishing ShakeAlert Messages [1] that contain data about the location, depth, estimated magnitude of an earthquake and expected shaking distribution, which in turn is published by delivery partners (Given et al, 2018). EEW systems aim to mitigate damage by notifying individuals and automated infrastructure systems about shaking from an earthquake in progress, so they can take protective action (Wald, 2020;Minson et al, 2019;Given et al, 2014;Cochran et al, 2018). Essentially, the USGS acts as the official "voice" of the warning system, as explored in Landis (2003); however, it is also supported by numerous private and public partnerships, as well as diverse alerting distributors, to manage this system.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An estimated 51 million people live on the West Coast of the USA (U.S. Census, 2019), and the region is home to one of the fastest growing populations in the country (U.S. Census Bureau, 2010). This growth may require ShakeAlert's communication, and education programs to expand in an effort to continually reach as many people as possible through associated campaigns (McBride et al, 2020;Cochran et al, 2018). Given that the ShakeAlert system is growing, it is an important time to explore these issues to better inform future communication campaigns.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Considerations for creating equitable and inclusive communication campaigns associated with ShakeAlert, the earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the USA

Jenkins

McBride

Morgoch

et al. 2022

DPM

Self Cite

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PurposeThe 2019 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR) cites earthquakes as the most damaging natural hazard globally, causing billions of dollars of damage and killing thousands of people. Earthquakes have the potential to drastically impact physical, social and economic landscapes; to reduce this risk, earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been developed. However, these technical EEW systems do not operate in a vacuum; the inequities in social systems, along with the needs of diverse populations, must be considered when developing these systems and their associated communication campaigns.Design/methodology/approachThis article reviews aspects of social vulnerability as they relate to ShakeAlert, the EEW system for the USA. The authors identified two theories (relationship management theory and mute group theory) to inform self-reflective questions for agencies managing campaigns for EEW systems, which can assist in the development of more inclusive communication practices. Finally, the authors suggest this work contributes to important conversations about diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) issues within early warning systems and earthquake preparedness campaigns in general.FindingsTo increase inclusivity, Macnamara (2012) argues that self-reflective questioning while analyzing perspective, philosophy and approaches for a campaign can help. Specific to EEW campaigns, developers may find self-reflective questions a useful approach to increase inclusion. These questions are guided by two theories and are explored in the paper.Research limitations/implicationsSeveral research limitations exist. First, this work explores two theories to develop a combined theoretical model for self-reflective questions. Further research is required to determine if this approach and the combination of these two theories have adequately informed the development of the reflective questions.Originality/valueThe authors could find little peer-reviewed work examining DEI for EEW systems, and ShakeAlert in particular. While articles on early warning systems exist that explore aspects of this, EEW and ShakeAlert, with its very limited time frames for warnings, creates unique challenges.

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Section: Shakealert the Eew System In The Usamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Considerations for creating equitable and inclusive communication campaigns associated with ShakeAlert, the earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the USA

Jenkins

McBride

Morgoch

et al. 2022

DPM

Self Cite

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“…Here the first alert was selected to derive all statistics because of its importance for EEW. Although other EEW projects have moved towards more ground motion based metrics and warning time calculations (Cochran et al, 2018;Chung et al, 2020;Meier et al, 2020), at this stage of the National System project, we are mainly concerned about the correctness of results of the first alert. The result of each earthquake identified by the EEWS was compared with those in the China Earthquake Network Center (CENC) catalogs.…”

Section: Sichuan Seismic Networkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Performance Evaluation of an Earthquake Early Warning System in the 2019–2020 M6.0 Changning, Sichuan, China, Seismic Sequence

Peng

Jiang

et al. 2021

Front. Earth Sci.

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China is currently building a nationwide earthquake early warning system (EEWS) which will be completed in June 2023. Several regions have been selected as pilot areas for instrumentation, software system and dissemination verification. For these regions, their construction tasks will be completed in advance with trial runs being carried out in June 2021. Before the trial operation, we need to understand the actual processing capabilities of different EEWSs. In this work, we focus on the system deployed in Sichuan province and evaluate its real-time performance during the 2019–2020 M6.0 Changning seismic sequence. This period was divided into two stages. The first stage was the time from the occurrence of the M6.0 (Mw5.7) mainshock (June 17, 2019) to the end of October 2019 with no MEMS-based stations around the Changning seismic sequence deployed and most of the broadband and short period seismic stations not upgraded to low latency streaming, and the second one was from the beginning of November 2019 to March 2021 with deployments of more than 700 MEMS-based stations and low latency upgrades of ∼30 seismic stations. Median errors for the epicentral locations, depths and magnitude estimations were almost the same for both stages, 1.5 ± 6.0 km, 0.0 ± 3.6 km and −0.1 ± 0.46 for the first stage and 2.3 ± 3.0 km, −3.0 ± 3.6 km and −0.2 ± 0.32 for the second one. However, an obvious underestimation of the magnitude for earthquakes with M 5.0 + occurring in the first stage was observed, which would be caused by the clipped waveforms, sensors deployed in short period seismic stations and MEMS-based stations, the adopted magnitude estimation method, and the method used to computer the network magnitude. The median reporting time was significantly improved from 10.5 ± 3.0 s after origin time for the first stage to 6.3 ± 3.5 s for the second stage because of introduction of newly deployed MEMS-based stations. The results obtained from the second stage indicate that the system has entered a stable operating stage and we can officially launch the trial operation in the pilot areas for public early warning services.

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“…Therefore, a burgeoning series of theoretical and prospective works has explored the importance of both alerting and messaging strategies. Previous literature focuses on alert thresholds, tolerance for missed and false alerts, and how systems should be explained beforehand to manage expectations (Cochran et al, 2018;Allen and Melgar, 2019;Becker et al, 2020). When it comes to messaging, the format, design, and content of the message matter (Allen and Melgar, 2019;Sutton et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Efficacy and Usefulness of an Independent Public Earthquake Early Warning System: A Case Study—The Earthquake Network Initiative in Peru

Fallou

Finazzi

Bossu

2021

Seismological Research Letters

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Public earthquake early warning (PEEW) systems are intended to reduce individual risk by warning people ahead of shaking and allowing them to take protective action. Yet very few studies have assessed their actual efficacy from a risk-reduction perspective. Moreover, according to these studies, a majority of people do not undertake safety actions when receiving the warning. The spectrum of PEEW systems has expanded, with a greater diversity of actors (from citizens to private companies), increased independence from national authorities, and greater internationality. Beyond differences in warning and messaging strategies, systems’ characteristics may impact the way the public perceive, trust, understand, and respond to these warnings, which in turn will influence PEEW systems’ efficacy and perceived usefulness, enhancing the need for additional research. We take the example of earthquake network, an independent, voluntary, community-based and free system that offers a PEEW service. Through a quantitative survey (n = 2625), we studied users’ perception and reaction to a warning sent related to an M 8.0 earthquake in Peru (where no national system existed). We observed that even though only a minority of users actually took protective action, the system was appreciated and perceived as useful by the majority because it enabled mental preparation before the shaking. We found evidence for a tolerance for perceived late, missed, and false alerts. However, because it is a voluntary and independent system, the social dimension of the warning was incomplete because only a fringe of the population benefited from the warning. Therefore, many users’ first reaction was to warn their relatives. We discuss the need for partnerships between PEEW operators and national authorities to guarantee universal access to the service and maximize PEEW system efficacy.

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Research to improve ShakeAlert earthquake early warning products and their utility

Cited by 15 publications

References 16 publications

Considerations for creating equitable and inclusive communication campaigns associated with ShakeAlert, the earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the USA

Considerations for creating equitable and inclusive communication campaigns associated with ShakeAlert, the earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the USA

Performance Evaluation of an Earthquake Early Warning System in the 2019–2020 M6.0 Changning, Sichuan, China, Seismic Sequence

Efficacy and Usefulness of an Independent Public Earthquake Early Warning System: A Case Study—The Earthquake Network Initiative in Peru

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