Residential Constraints and the Political Geography of the Populist Radical Right: Evidence from France

Abstract

What explains variation in populist radical right (PRR) support within Western democracies? Specifically, why is contemporary PRR support often and increasingly stronger in areas seemingly detached from the effects of globalization, transnationalism, or immigration, the key issues these parties emphasize? This study articulates a theory of residential constraints to deepen understanding of these spatial patterns. I hypothesize that when citizens are residentially constrained—that is, when their means of reacting to local conditions and “voting with their feet” are limited—they are more likely to support PRR parties. To test this claim, I use a multimethod research design and exploit both quantitative and qualitative evidence from France, an important case of long-standing and geographically divided PRR support. I demonstrate that the PRR performs well in areas where locals’ access to services and opportunities is compromised and where opportunities and incentives to relocate are blocked by residential constraints. Residential constraints thus generate a set of relative economic grievances and render them highly salient in localities that may otherwise appear unaffected by more objective hardships and structural decay.

Emigration and Radical Right Populism

“…Our argument complements recent studies that highlight the grievances of residents living in declining peripheries as a source of PRR success (Patana, 2021;Rickardsson, 2021). However, different from this work -which documents a one-election, cross-sectional correlation between PRR vote shares and population decline -our panel analyses can better isolate the effect of emigration on PRR support by comparing changes in precinct-level vote shares with changes in emigration rates covering five general election cycles.…”

“…In highlighting that emigration can propel political change, we advance research linking demographic change to populist success. This research has focused on the disruptions caused by immigration, but aside from a few contributions (Anelli and Peri, 2017;Lim, 2022;Patana, 2021) it has neglected the consequences of emigration. Whereas immigration can bolster populist radical right parties through congestion effects and overburdened public services (Cremaschi et al, 2022;Dancygier, 2010;Hooijer, 2021), we show that opposite forces can do the same.…”

Rents, refugees, and the populist radical right

“…In line with this logic, recent studies have also established a connection between house prices and Brexit and PRR support at the subnational levels (Ansell et al, 2022;Adler and Ansell 2020;Patana 2022) -PRR rhetoric resonates stronger in declining areas with depreciating house prices. The economic re-structuring of post-industrial societies underpins these dynamics.…”

“…By uncovering a strong link between rising rents and PRR vote at the individual level in the German context, we add to scholarship of the politics of housing markets (e.g. Abou-Chadi et al, 2021; Ansell et al, 2022; Adler and Ansell 2020; Ansell 2014; Patana 2022; Scheve and Slaughter 2001). We also contribute to research underscoring relative economic conditions underpinning PRR voting (Abou-Chadi and Kurer 2021; Adler and Ansell 2020; Gidron and Hall 2020; Kurer 2020).…”

“…Our argument about rising rents adds important insights into scholarship on the politics of housing markets (e.g. Abou-Chadi et al, 2021; Ansell and Cansunar 2021; Ansell et al, 2022; Ansell 2014; Patana 2022; Scheve and Slaughter 2001). We also refine understandings of the conditions under which economic factors shape PRR support (Abou-Chadi and Kurer 2021; Adler and Ansell 2020; Gidron and Hall 2020; Kurer 2020).…”