Resilience of agricultural development in China’s major grain-producing areas under the double security goals of “grain ecology”

Study on the Measurement of the the Grain Industry Chain Resilience and its Influencing Factors: A Case from China

“…In equation (1), G is the total Gini coefficient, k is the total number of regions, j and h are the different regions within the k regions, and i and r are the provinces (cities) within the different regions. nj (nh) denotes the number of provinces (cities) within the j (h) region, yji (yhr) denotes the level of resilience of the food industry chain of the provinces (municipalities) within the j (h) region, and 𝑦 ̅ denotes the average of the resilience of the food industry chain of each province (cities).…”

“…In recent years, China's grain production capacity has continued to improve, the number of deep processing enterprises has increased year by year, the supply structure has been optimized, and the modernization level of distribution has continued to improve. However, the global unprecedented changes have accelerated the evolution of the domestic market supply and demand for food from the stage of structural relative surplus tends to tight balance situation and will be maintained in the medium and long term continuation [1], the uncertainty and instability of the international food market increased significantly, the global food supply chain is facing the risk of decoupling and chain breakage has further increased. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the resilience level of China's grain industry chain to promote the high-quality development of the grain industry, promote the coordinated development of production and marketing regions, and consolidate the foundation of food security.…”

“…Based on this, this paper bases on the four levels of industry chain foundation, risk resistance, adaptive adjustment and innovation and transformation, constructs a comprehensive evaluation index of China's grain industry chain resilience, comprehensively measures the level of grain industry chain resilience based on China's data from 2011-2022, analyzes its spatial differences by using the Dagum Gini coefficient, and combines the geographic detectors to identify and diagnose the main factors affecting the resilience of the grain industry chain. There are two possible marginal contributions: (1) to analyze the resilience of the Chinese grain industry chain in depth, focus on the inter-provincial differences in the the grain industry chain resilience in and analyze in depth the intrinsic causes of its spatial differences, so as to provide a reference for the integrated and coordinated development of the grain industry chain resilience in China; (2) to incorporate spatial effects into the scope of analyzing the influencing factors, and to use the geodetectors to reveal the driving factors of spatial, which can better overcome the problems of multiple covariance and endogeneity than the traditional regression method.…”