Resilience of Russian Regions to Economic Shocks

Михеева, Н. Н.

doi:10.1134/s107570072101010x

Cited by 23 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Tsepelev & Kakaulina (2014) argue that unpredictable, sharp fluctuations in the tax burden can destabilize the economy and impede economic growth. Mikheeva (2021) points out the regional component as a significant factor determining resilience. Klimanov & Kazakova (2021) note the challenges in Russia's transition to sustainable development due to high interregional differentiation and limitations in regional strategic planning.…”

Section: Theoretical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of the level and structure of stress in tax revenues of the federal and regional budgets

Malkina,

Balakin

2023

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Relevance. In recent years, the Russian economy has faced the global challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and unprecedented sanctions. Understanding how the tax systems of Russian regions respond to these external shocks is crucial for identifying critical stress sources affecting budgets at various levels. Research objective. This study aims to assess and compare tax revenue stress across the federal districts of the Russian Federation, considering different levels of the budget system, and to identify the underlying sources of this stress. Data and methods. The study relies on official data from the Federal Tax Service of the Russian Federation on tax revenues to federal and regional budgets in the federal districts. The analysis covers monthly data from January 2013 to December 2022. The stress index was calculated by measuring the difference between the moving standard deviation and the mean of the annual tax revenue growth rate, with a lag of 1 month. The methodology for decomposing the sources of tax revenue stress was also tested. Results. Over-time assessments of stress indices for tax revenues to federal and regional budgets were obtained for the Russian Federation and its federal districts. The varying levels, dynamics, and budgetary distribution of tax revenue stress across federal districts are explained by differences in the structure, growth rates, and volatility of various taxes, as well as their correlations in these districts. Decomposition of federal and regional tax stress showed the unique role of mineral extraction tax and profit tax as stress amplifiers during crises, while in stable periods, they contribute significantly to stress reduction. The study also establishes the distinct roles of federal districts in intensifying or alleviating overall tax revenue stress during pandemic and sanctions shocks, as well as periods of relative stability. Conclusions. This research demonstrates the importance of assessing and identifying sources of tax revenue stress in regions. Such insights help identify vulnerabilities and reserves for enhancing the resilience of regional and federal budgets through the diversification of regional economic systems and adjustments to tax system rules in response to changing external conditions.

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Section: Theoretical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of the level and structure of stress in tax revenues of the federal and regional budgets

Malkina,

Balakin

2023

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“…N. N. Mikheeva (2021) addresses issues of regional resilience to crisis shocks and methods for their assessment, showing that the resilience of regions does not depend on the nature of the crisis or the size of the region, what is more important is the presence of large agglomerations.…”

Section: Theoretical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development Trends and Dynamics of Industrial Specialization in Russian Regions

Kotlyarova,

Shamova

2023

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Relevance. The study of the industrial structure of regional economies has gained relevance amid shifting geopolitics and unprecedented sanctions, prompting the need for economic restructuring, product/sector substitution, and the exploration of new growth opportunities at national and regional levels. Research objective. This study evaluates the dynamics of industrial specializations in Russian regions and their role in ensuring stable regional economic development. The hypothesis is that there is a direct link between the resilience of the regional economic system and its industrial specializations. Here, resilience refers to the territory's ability to minimize the negative impacts of external shocks and threats and restore its economic level during a specified adaptation period. Data and method. The focus of this study is industrially developed regions whose economies rely predominantly on manufacturing. The study uses Rosstat data on shipped goods, performed works, and services from 2019 to 2022. Data cleansing involves removing the inflationary component using producer price indices. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index is used for the sectors in the "C. Manufacturing" category of OKVED2 (All-Russian Classifier of Economic Activities). Results. The study identifies regional variations in industrial specialization levels and progression, categorizing regions into diversified and specialized. We found the transformation of the economic structure in the majority of the examined regions and identified the "new" and "departed" sectors of industrial specialization. Resilience to crises is analyzed, revealing three groups of regions based on their resilience levels. Key industries driving regional development are also identified. Conclusions. Analysis of industrially developed regions uncovers unique structural transformations, offering valuable insights for regional policymakers. Future research avenues may involve refining socio-economic profiles based on industrial specialization and formulating government measures to support industrial development.

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“…In addition, scientists explore the resilience of various regional economies to economic crises, including pandemics (Brada et al, 2021;Mikheeva, 2021), and the factors affecting resilience (Kolomak, 2020;Pietro et al, 2020). Few studies directly focus on the response of the Russian regional fiscal systems, their revenues and expenditures, and the level of debt to the 2020 pandemic (Klimanov et al, 2021).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of the 2020 Pandemic on Revenue from Various Taxes in the Russian Regions

Малкина¹

2021

J. Sib. Fed. Univ., Humanit. soc. sci.

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The article investigates the impact of the 2020 pandemic on tax revenues of Russian regions at the stages of their collection and allocation to regional budgets. To exclude the influence of the seasonal component and uneven receipts of various taxes to the budget, the moving annual tax revenues were calculated with a shift of one month. Based on these data for 2013-March 2020, linear time regressions were built and decomposed into 8 taxes and tax groups. These regressions were used to predict non-pandemic tax revenues for different regions in April-December 2020. The impact of the pandemic on the regional tax losses (gains) and their decomposition by sources was calculated through the deviation of the actual revenues from their predicted non-pandemic values on an accrual basis until the end of 2020. We found that the pandemic had led to losses of 13.9 % of total tax revenues in the country and 6.2 % of regional budgets’ own tax revenues. The mining regions are the most affected by the pandemic. On the contrary, in some Far Eastern regions, there is an abnormal increase in tax collections. The largest contribution to the decrease in tax revenues at the consolidated and federal levels was made by the MET receipts; they fell sharply due to lower prices and volumes of oil and gas. However, the negative effect of this decrease at the federal level was dampened by stabilizing VAT receipts. Excise taxes played a positive role in mitigating pandemic risks. The tax distribution system has shown its equalizing function when allocating tax revenues to sub-federal budgets. The largest negative contribution to the change in regional tax revenues during the 2020 pandemic was made by the corporate income tax, while the negative impact of property taxes and special tax regimes turned out to be less significant. Personal income tax has proven to be the main damper of tax revenues at the regional level. The results obtained are applicable to the management of the state fiscal revenues during pandemic crises

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Resilience of Russian Regions to Economic Shocks

Cited by 23 publications

References 6 publications

Assessment of the level and structure of stress in tax revenues of the federal and regional budgets

Assessment of the level and structure of stress in tax revenues of the federal and regional budgets

Development Trends and Dynamics of Industrial Specialization in Russian Regions

Impact of the 2020 Pandemic on Revenue from Various Taxes in the Russian Regions

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