Resource adequacy assessment considering transmission and generation via market simulations

Abstract

Resource Planning (or Long Term Transmission Planning) and System Adequacy assessment at the RTO/ISO level in an electricity market environment had added more requirements for new computing tools. The decoupled approach of forecasting the performance of a generation portfolio (LOLE-based) given its historical outage information combined with a deterministic approach to transmission planning based on N-1 criteria present major weaknesses in that the consequences of multiple component failures and the probabilities of single components failure are excluded from consideration. Other considerations that are excluded are a number of uncertainty factors such as load forecasts, location of future generation and fuel price forecasts in addition to social, political and environmental issues and their impact on electricity price volatility. As a result system adequacy is understated which at best leave system operators, at times, with not enough available resources for secure and reliable operation, which in turn lead to high system congestion and inefficient use of resources, and at worst leads to an underestimated forecast of future system reliability needs (transmission, generation or demand response resources).This paper presents a resource adequacy approach that evaluates system reliability taking into consideration the combined unavailability of both transmission and generation resources. Using the ABB GridView application, a production cost based market simulation software, which is capable of conducting chronological Monte-Carlo simulations; the overall system resource adequacy was assessed. Effects of including transmission unavailability are illustrated through a market simulation analysis of the NYCA system based on publicly available transmission, generation, and demand data. This approach is not meant to replace the N-1 based criteria; it will only provide an added dimension to the transmission planning process.

The Visible Hand: Ensuring Optimal Investment in Electric Power Generation

“…Reliability options thus also sur-remunerate strategic underinvestment. While Propositions 2 and 3 are consistent with Chao and Wilson (2005) and Allaz and Villa (1993)'s theoretical analysis of the interaction between forward and spot markets, they are new to the literature.…”

“…This Section examines financial reliability options, proposed by Oren (2005), Stoft (2006 and, and more recently Cramton and Ockenfels (2011). Options and not forward contracts are the financial instruments analyzed here, since Chao and Wilson (2005), that examine a slightly different option design, argue that options are in general preferable. These options constitute an insurance against spot energy prices higher than a pre-agreed strike price , sold by producers to customers.…”

“…3 Joskow and Tirole (2007) show that a capacity market and a price cap do not restore the first best with more than two states of the world. Chao and Wilson (2005) examine the impact of options on spot market equilibrium, investment, and welfare. Zo ¨ttl (2011) determines the welfare maximizing price cap in the spot market.…”

Short-term LMP forecasting using an artificial neural network incorporating empirical mode decomposition

“…Approaches for the LMP forecasting may be categorized into data‐driven and model‐driven studies. The model‐driven works used generation, transmission, and load forecast to perform a chronological LMP simulation, as seen in commercial tools like MAPS, GridView , PROMOD , etc. The GridView program employs a production cost‐based model that considers network topology.…”

“…used GridView to conduct the transmission asset utilization assessment, bottleneck identification, and benefit analysis for system expansions in a power market . Chao and Simaan used GridView to conduct the chronological Monte‐Carlo simulations and assess the overall system resource adequacy . PROMOD encompasses sub‐models for generation (i.e.…”