Resource Allocation Strategies in Presidential Nomination Campaigns

Gurian, Paul-Henri

doi:10.2307/2111274

Cited by 35 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 8 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…While at the outset candidates may have a scenario by which they believe that they can win the nomination (Gurian 1986), we argue that candidates also enter and remain active in order to raise their profile, nationally and within their party. In essence, a presidential nomination bid can increase a candidate's political capital, which can be spent in numerous ways; on a future presidential run or to gain consideration as a vice presidential nominee or cabinet member.…”

Section: Candidate Motivations and The Decision To Continue A Nominatmentioning

confidence: 78%

Explaining the Decision to Withdraw from a U.S. Presidential Nomination Campaign

2009

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We contend that a candidate's decision to exit from a U.S. presidential nomination campaign is a function of three sets of considerations: the potential for profile elevation, party-related costs, and updated perceptions of competitiveness. We analyze data from eleven post-reform presidential nomination campaigns and find support for all three considerations. Specifically, our results suggest that in addition to candidates' competitiveness, the decision to withdraw is a function of candidates' closeness to their party and ability to raise their profile. At the same time, some of our results contradict the conventional wisdom regarding presidential nomination campaigns, as we find no evidence that media coverage or cash on hand directly affect the duration of a nomination candidacy.

show abstract

Section: Candidate Motivations and The Decision To Continue A Nominatmentioning

confidence: 78%

Explaining the Decision to Withdraw from a U.S. Presidential Nomination Campaign

2009

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Aldrich (1980a, b) and Bartels (1985Bartels ( , 1988 demonstrate the virtue of campaign momentum from performing better than expected. 4 Recent models of presidential nomination outcomes possess one of numerous measures of momentum THE NEW HAMPSHIRE EFFECT IN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATIONS 377 such as success in initial primaries (Adkins and Dowdle, 2001a;2001b;Norrander, 2000), performance in previous primaries (Grush, 1980;Norrander 2000a, b;Mutz 1995;Hinckley and Green 1996;Damore 1997;Haynes, Gurian, and Nichols 1997), or media coverage (Gurian 1986(Gurian , 1990(Gurian , 1993aGurian and Haynes 1993). Measuring candidates' support at the end of the exhibition season, however, misses the effect of such movement.…”

Section: Change In Public Supportmentioning

confidence: 99%

The New Hampshire Effect in Presidential Nominations

Steger

Dowdle

Adkins

2004

Political Research Quarterly

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In order to demonstrate challenges to conventional wisdom (Aldrich 1980a, b; Bartels 1985 1988; Orren and Polsby 1987), this article develops several forecasting models of the presidential primary vote to compare to a baseline model of the aggregate primary vote (APV) that uses pre-primary and New Hampshire primary data. The models indicate that candidates’ Gallup poll position and cash reserves are significant positive predictors of a candidates’ primary vote share, though there are differences between forecasting models of the primary vote in Democratic and Republican nomination campaigns. Parallel models incorporating results of the New Hampshire primary improve the predictive power of the baseline model, indicating that the bellwether primary has a “correcting” effect on the relative standings of some candidates seeking a presidential nomination. This effect is substantially greater for Democrats than for Republicans.

show abstract

“…Furthermore, we hypothesize that the specific strategies that candidates utilize to influence the media are determined by their competitive position. Frontrunners desire one type of response from the media and dark horses another: each acts accordingly in terms of how they spend their money (Gurian 1986;Gurian and Haynes 1993), how they treat their opponents (Haynes and Rhine 1998), and how they attempt to frame their campaigns for the news media (Ansolabehere et al 1993).…”

Section: Field Position and Candidate Messaging Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

Getting the Message Out: Candidate Communication Strategy During thr Invisible Primary

Haynes¹,

Flowers

Gurian³

2002

Political Research Quarterly

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This article applies the theory of competitive (war) and substantive (marketing) communication strategies to the presidential nomination campaign, focusing primarily on the time period during which we expect the candidates to be most concerned with framing their campaigns-the invisible primary. We utilize candidate press releases to assess the accuracy of this theory and refine it. We then test the hypothesis that a candidate's strategic goals, which are generally defined by the candidate's competitive status relative to the field, determine the dominant type of message communicated during this penod. We find that there are definite patterns of messaging choice relative to candidate status. We also find that competitive messages dominate the "discourse" of candidates relative to the news media to a far greater extent than anticipated.The literatures surrounding the presidential selection process and candidate communication strategy posit two dominant messaging strategies for the conduct of presidential campaigns (Scammell 1998; Bowler and Farrell 1992;Collins and Butler 1996). Substantive strategies attempt to frame a candidate's campaign by defining policy positions and administration goals; competitive strategies attempt to define the campaign environment by ranking the contenders and handicapping the race. Unfortunately, systematic examination of campaign messaging strategies is lacking, leaving us unable to assess whether this typology accurately depicts the universe of campaign messaging strategies. Furthermore, even if we assume the substantive and competitive categories encapsulate all campaign messages, we lack any examination concerning when, how, and by whom these

show abstract

Resource Allocation Strategies in Presidential Nomination Campaigns

Cited by 35 publications

References 8 publications

Explaining the Decision to Withdraw from a U.S. Presidential Nomination Campaign

Explaining the Decision to Withdraw from a U.S. Presidential Nomination Campaign

The New Hampshire Effect in Presidential Nominations

Getting the Message Out: Candidate Communication Strategy During thr Invisible Primary

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About