Resource Criticality in Modern Economies: Agent-Based Model Demonstrates Vulnerabilities from Technological Interdependence

Sherwood, John; Ditta, Anthony; Haney, Becky Roselius; Haarsma, Loren; Carbajales‐Dale, Michael

doi:10.1007/s41247-017-0026-z

Cited by 11 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Representative agent models do not capture the behaviours of multiple, heterogenous agents or interdependencies between them. These models have been associated with a failure to anticipate the global financial crisis (Sherwood et al, 2017).…”

Section: Computable General Equilibrium (Cge) Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Simulated agents can therefore be disrupted by events which they cannot foresee (in contrast to perfect foresight models), and their behaviour can change dramatically and irreversibly as a reaction to small shocks (Lamperti et al, 2018;Sherwood et al, 2017).…”

Section: Simulation and Agent-based Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Agent-based models in the identified studies have been used to understand the economic impact of short-term, emergent disruptions and interdependencies between infrastructure and economic sectors (Ehlen and Scholand, 2005), and also to examine resource supply disruptions through economic collapse and recovery scenarios (Sherwood et al, 2017). over the period 2000 to 2100 (Lamperti et al, 2018).…”

Section: Economic and Market Changementioning

confidence: 99%

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How do energy systems model and scenario studies explicitly represent socio-economic, political and technological disruption and discontinuity? Implications for policy and practitioners

Hanna

Groß

2021

Energy Policy

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Section: Computable General Equilibrium (Cge) Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Simulation and Agent-based Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Economic and Market Changementioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

How do energy systems model and scenario studies explicitly represent socio-economic, political and technological disruption and discontinuity? Implications for policy and practitioners

Hanna

Groß

2021

Energy Policy

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“…ACE models are examples. They are a particularly appropriate methodology for examining an economy as a complex adaptive system [36]. Further, this approach is among the rarest-or may be unique according to Fromm [6]-in being able to represent the decision-making rules of those involved individually, the interactions between them, and interactions between the scales.…”

Section: The Complexity Paradigmsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Consideration of Complexity in the Management of Construction and Demolition Waste Flow in French Regions: An Agent-Based Computational Economics Approach

Andriamasinoro

Monfort

2021

Modelling

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For each region of France, there is currently a program to implement a plan for regional prevention and management of construction and demolition waste (CDW) used in the buildings and public works (e.g., roads) sector, also called the BTP (from the French Bâtiment et Travaux Publics) sector. To implement such a plan, its complexity must be considered; i.e., account (a) for how different scales are endogenously connected and (b) for decision-making rules at each scale being introduced. However, this complexity has rarely been taken into account in the literature. Using the PACA region as a case-study, this paper presents the first results of modelling that determines a hypotheses for the geographic distribution of the road renovation rate in each municipality (microscale) and Department (mesoscale) in a region of France. Such a renovation requires recycled aggregates (gravel) and asphalt supplies simultaneously. To consider this endogenous connection between scales, the model at the micro-scale must also be calibrated so the simulated values emerging at a higher-scale approach a supply–demand balance. We also discuss the transposition of the model to another French region (Ile-de-France). The method we used is the Agent-based Computational Economics (ACE) modelling approach. In addition, the coherent interplay between scales is determined by an approach called pattern-oriented modelling (POM). Our research revealed, at a thematic level, that for a circular economy to develop, the network of facilities in the territory is very important, and effective commercialization of secondary resources is major in the areas that group together recycling platforms and nearby asphalt plants. At a methodological level, our research revealed that in any multi-level modelling exercise, POM can be seen as an essential approach to accompany the ACE approach, particularly for a macroeconomic (here macro = regional) looping of a model designed at a microscale. However, convincing the BTP sector to integrate ACE/POM as a full part of a methodological support for regional prevention and management of CDW remains a challenge

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“…These models do not provide prediction capabilities, but elucidate the consequences of theory (like the Limits to Growth model as discussed at the start of "The Biophysical Economic Modeling Landscape" section). Pure theory models are designed to understand and develop general theories without explicitly modeling a specific place or time period (Sherwood et al 2017;Motesharrei et al 2014;Epstein and Axtell 1996). At the other end of the spectrum are complete empirical and applied models that directly correlate to a specific location, time, and technology, but leave little room for making general observations.…”

Section: Ethosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Putting the Biophysical (Back) in Economics: A Taxonomic Review of Modeling the Earth-Bound Economy

2020

Self Cite

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Economists rarely model the economy as explicitly bound by earth’s ecological systems. Modeling the dynamic interactions of both human and non-human systems is admittedly a challenging task, as it requires expertise from multiple disciplines. Within the last 10 years, a wide variety of research papers have been published that include some biophysical aspects in a model of the economy. These papers all have one thing in common: the model of the economy includes physical and/or energetic exchanges, as well as monetary exchange. This theme is what defines the emerging sub-discipline of biophysical economics, BPE. BPE models of the economy originate from a variety of disciplines, and thus BPE research articles are published across a wide spectrum of academic journals. As inter-disciplinary researchers ourselves, we want to understand what BPE modeling approaches have been used so far. In this paper, we examine and classify over one hundred published articles that use biophysical models of the economy. Although BPE modeling approaches are quite varied, grouping the research by common characteristics reveals several active research areas. We highlight recent papers that are helpful examples of the most popular BPE modeling strategies. Gaps also exist. Several modeling approaches have not been used in published works yet. We identify which of those gaps could be promising avenues for future research. We conclude by suggesting which BPE modeling approach might be particularly appropriate for a variety of research questions.

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Resource Criticality in Modern Economies: Agent-Based Model Demonstrates Vulnerabilities from Technological Interdependence

Abstract: the interdependence that arises from specialization and trade also leads to a less resilient economy. Unexpected, large economic collapse can arise from a shock to even a single resource, due to each resource's interdependent role in the economy.

Cited by 11 publications

References 39 publications

How do energy systems model and scenario studies explicitly represent socio-economic, political and technological disruption and discontinuity? Implications for policy and practitioners

How do energy systems model and scenario studies explicitly represent socio-economic, political and technological disruption and discontinuity? Implications for policy and practitioners

Consideration of Complexity in the Management of Construction and Demolition Waste Flow in French Regions: An Agent-Based Computational Economics Approach

Putting the Biophysical (Back) in Economics: A Taxonomic Review of Modeling the Earth-Bound Economy

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