Resource Estimations in Contingency Planning for Foot-and-Mouth Disease

Boklund, Anette; Mortensen, Sten; Johansen, Maren Holm; Halasa, Tariq Hisham Beshara

doi:10.3389/fvets.2017.00064

Cited by 8 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 22 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The number of teams needed for surveillance visits also influenced our results substantially. This observation is in line with findings of Garner et al ( 39 ) and Boklund et al ( 40 ). The number of herds to be visited for surveillance in the reference scenarios of both regions exceeded the number of available teams almost immediately after the start of the control phase.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

The Epidemiological and Economic Impact of a Potential Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak in Austria

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

An outbreak of foot-and mouth disease (FMD) in an FMD-free country such as Austria would likely have serious consequences for the national livestock sector and economy. The objective of this study was to analyse the epidemiological and economic impact of an FMD outbreak in Austria in order to (i) evaluate the effectiveness of different control measures in two Austrian regions with different livestock structure and density, (ii) analyse the associated costs of the control measures and the losses resulting from trade restrictions on livestock and livestock products and (iii) assess the resources that would be required to control the FMD outbreak. The European Foot-and-Mouth Disease Spread Model (EuFMDiS) was used to simulate a potential FMD outbreak. Based on the epidemiological outputs of the model, the economic impact of the outbreak was assessed. The analysis of the simulations showed that the success of control strategies depends largely on the type of control measures, the geographical location, the availability of sufficient resources, and the speed of intervention. The comparison of different control strategies suggested that from an economic point of view the implementation of additional control measures, such as pre-emptive depopulation of susceptible herds, would be efficient if the epidemic started in an area with high livestock density. Depending on the chosen control measures and the affected region, the majority of the total costs would be attributable to export losses (e.g., each day of an FMD epidemic costs Austria € 9–16 million). Our analysis indicated that the currently estimated resources for surveillance, cleaning, and disinfection during an FMD outbreak in Austria would be insufficient, which would lead to an extended epidemic control duration. We have shown that the control of an FMD outbreak can be improved by implementing a contingency strategy adapted to the affected region and by placing particular focus on an optimal resource allocation and rapid detection of the disease in Austria. The model results can assist veterinary authorities in planning resources and implementing cost-effective control measures for future outbreaks of highly contagious viral diseases.

show abstract

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

The Epidemiological and Economic Impact of a Potential Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak in Austria

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Nevertheless, this would result in a large number of samples for serological testing (Figure 1 ). This clearly warrants the investigation of resource capacities during an outbreak situation, including laboratory capacities as carried out earlier for FMD ( 9 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 79%

“…The DTU-DADS-ASF model version 0.15.1, which is a buildup from the original DTU-DADS model ( 9 , 10 ) was used for this study ( 8 , 11 ). The model is available at .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the Effects of Duration and Size of the Control Zones on the Consequences of a Hypothetical African Swine Fever Epidemic in Denmark

et al. 2018

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

African swine fever (ASF) is a notifiable infectious disease. The disease is endemic in certain regions in Eastern Europe constituting a risk of ASF spread toward Western Europe. Therefore, as part of contingency planning, it is important to continuously explore strategies that can effectively control an epidemic of ASF. A previously published and well documented simulation model for ASF virus spread between herds was used to examine the epidemiologic and economic impacts of the duration and size of the control zones around affected herds. In the current study, scenarios were run, where the duration of the protection and surveillance zones were reduced from 50 and 45 days to 35 and 25 days or to 35 and 25 days, respectively. These scenarios were run with or without enlargement of the surveillance zone around detected herds from 10 to 15 km. The scenarios were also run with only clinical or clinical and serological surveillance of herds within the zones. Sensitivity analysis was conducted on influential input parameters in the model. The model predicts that reducing the duration of the protection and surveillance zones has no impact on the epidemiological consequences of the epidemics, while it may result in a substantial reduction in the total economic losses. In addition, the model predicts that increasing the size of the surveillance zone from 10 to 15 km may reduce both the epidemic duration and the total economic losses, in case of large epidemics. The ranking of the control strategies by the total costs of the epidemics was not influenced by changes of input parameters in the sensitivity analyses.

show abstract

“…The DADS has been modified at the Technical University of Denmark, and the modified version is known as DTU-DADS. DTU-DADS is being used in FMD-free countries to understand the hypothetical spread of FMD, evaluate mitigation strategies, and help with contingency planning [ 77 – 80 , 108 ].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges to the Application of Spatially Explicit Stochastic Simulation Models for Foot-and-Mouth Disease Control in Endemic Settings: A Systematic Review

Zaheer

Salman

Steneroden

et al. 2020

Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Simulation modeling has become common for estimating the spread of highly contagious animal diseases. Several models have been developed to mimic the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in specific regions or countries, conduct risk assessment, analyze outbreaks using historical data or hypothetical scenarios, assist in policy decisions during epidemics, formulate preparedness plans, and evaluate economic impacts. Majority of the available FMD simulation models were designed for and applied in disease-free countries, while there has been limited use of such models in FMD endemic countries. This paper’s objective was to report the findings from a study conducted to review the existing published original research literature on spatially explicit stochastic simulation (SESS) models of FMD spread, focusing on assessing these models for their potential use in endemic settings. The goal was to identify the specific components of endemic FMD needed to adapt these SESS models for their potential application in FMD endemic settings. This systematic review followed the PRISMA guidelines, and three databases were searched, which resulted in 1176 citations. Eighty citations finally met the inclusion criteria and were included in the qualitative synthesis, identifying nine unique SESS models. These SESS models were assessed for their potential application in endemic settings. The assessed SESS models can be adapted for use in FMD endemic countries by modifying the underlying code to include multiple cocirculating serotypes, routine prophylactic vaccination (RPV), and livestock population dynamics to more realistically mimic the endemic characteristics of FMD. The application of SESS models in endemic settings will help evaluate strategies for FMD control, which will improve livestock health, provide economic gains for producers, help alleviate poverty and hunger, and will complement efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

show abstract

Resource Estimations in Contingency Planning for Foot-and-Mouth Disease

Cited by 8 publications

References 22 publications

The Epidemiological and Economic Impact of a Potential Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak in Austria

The Epidemiological and Economic Impact of a Potential Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak in Austria

Modeling the Effects of Duration and Size of the Control Zones on the Consequences of a Hypothetical African Swine Fever Epidemic in Denmark

Challenges to the Application of Spatially Explicit Stochastic Simulation Models for Foot-and-Mouth Disease Control in Endemic Settings: A Systematic Review

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About