Did foragers become farmers because cultivation of crops was simply a better way to make a living? If so, what is arguably the greatest ever revolution in human livelihoods is readily explained. To answer the question, I estimate the caloric returns per hour of labor devoted to foraging wild species and cultivating the cereals exploited by the first farmers, using data on foragers and landabundant hand-tool farmers in the ethnographic and historical record, as well as archaeological evidence. A convincing answer must account not only for the work of foraging and cultivation but also for storage, processing, and other indirect labor, and for the costs associated with the delayed nature of agricultural production and the greater exposure to risk of those whose livelihoods depended on a few cultivars rather than a larger number of wild species. Notwithstanding the considerable uncertainty to which these estimates inevitably are subject, the evidence is inconsistent with the hypothesis that the productivity of the first farmers exceeded that of early Holocene foragers. Social and demographic aspects of farming, rather than its productivity, may have been essential to its emergence and spread. Prominent among these aspects may have been the contribution of farming to population growth and to military prowess, both promoting the spread of farming as a livelihood.labor productivity | technological change | time discount | certainty equivalent A parsimonious and widely held explanation of the advent of farming is that at the end of the Pleistocene, hunter-gatherers took up cultivation of crops to raise (or prevent a decline) in their material living standards (1-3). In this view, the initial cultivation and subsequent domestication of cereals beginning about 12 millennia ago, and the somewhat later domestication of animals (4, 5), is emblematic of the economic model of technical progress and its diffusion (6). Like the bow and arrow, the steam engine or the computer, in this model cultivating plants rather than foraging wild species is said to have raised the productivity of human labor, encouraging adoption of the new technology and allowing farming populations to expand.Population did increase following domestication (7), but evidence that many of the first farmers were smaller and less healthy than early Holocene foragers casts doubt on improved material living standards as the cause (8). The findings reported here-that the first farmers were probably no more productive than the foragers they replaced, and may have been considerably less productive-favors a social rather than technological explanation of the Holocene revolution, one based on the demographic, political, and other consequences of adopting farming as a livelihood (9-14). The evidence is also consistent with the long-term persistence in many populations of "low-level food production" without a transition to a full reliance on farming (15, 16), as well as with recent evidence that the domestication of cereals was not a one-off event but rather a process e...