Resources, Conflict, and Economic Development in Africa

Abstract

Natural resources have driven both growth and conflict in modern Africa. We model the interaction of parties engaged in potential conflict over such resources. The likelihood of conflict depends on both the absolute and relative resource endowments of the parties. Resources fuel conflict by raising the gains from expropriation and by increasing fighting strength. Economic prosperity, as a result, is a function of equilibrium conflict prevalence determined not just by a region's own resources but also by the resources of its neighbors. Using high-resolution spatial data on resources, conflicts, and nighttime illumination across the whole of sub-Saharan Africa, we find evidence confirming each of the model's predictions. Structural estimates of the model reveal that conflict equilibria are more prevalent where institutional quality (measured by, e.g., risk of expropriation, property rights, voice and accountability) is worse.

Fertile Ground for Conflict

“…Dube and Vargas, 2013, Bazzi and Blattman, 2014, Berman and Couttenier, 2015, McGuirke and Burke, 2018, weather conditions (e.g. Miguel et al, 2004, Hsiang et al, 2013, Couttenier and Soubeyran, 2014, Iyigun et al, 2017, Adhvaryu et al, 2017, Harari and Ferrara, 2018, or long-run changes in agricultural productivity (Iyigun et al, 2015). We complement these works by demonstrating that variations in the price of an agricultural production technology (fertilizer) affect the likelihood of conflict, and that local heterogeneity in agricultural productivity plays a key role in this dynamic.…”

Regional resources and democratic secessionism

“…Numerous studies suggest that an abundance of natural resources leads, among others, to more corruption, lower political accountability (Ferraz & Monteiro, 2014), increases in violence and reduced electoral competition (Carreri & Dube, 2017), as well as civil war (see, e.g., Berman et al, 2017). Secessionist civil wars, in particular, represent a violent form of secessionism, which often arises due to distributional conflicts about resources (see, e.g., Adhvaryu et al, 2018;Collier & Hoeffler, 2004;Ross, 2004b), for instance, after the discovery of oil ,…”

Prenatal Temperature Shocks Reduce Cooperation: Evidence from Public Goods Games in Uganda

“…To my knowledge, the hitherto only study to look at the effect of in utero temperature shocks on later-life outcomes links temperature during gestation to depression in adulthood (Adhvaryu et al, 2015 ). The present paper fills in part of the remaining gap by studying the effects of ambient temperature during gestation on the taste for cooperation.…”