Response of global evaporation to major climate modes in historical and future Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations

Abstract

Abstract. Climate extremes, such as floods and droughts, might have severe economic and societal impacts. Given the high costs associated with these events, developing early-warning systems is of high priority. Evaporation, which is driven by around 50 % of solar energy absorbed at surface of the Earth, is an important indicator of the global water budget, monsoon precipitation, drought monitoring and the hydrological cycle. Here we investigate the response of global evaporation to main modes of interannual climate variability, including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These climate modes may have an influence on temperature, precipitation, soil moisture and wind speed and are likely to have impacts on global evaporation. We utilized data of historical simulations and RCP8.5 (representative concentration pathway) future simulations derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Our results indicate that ENSO is an important driver of evaporation for many regions, especially the tropical Pacific. The significant IOD influence on evaporation is limited in western tropical Indian Ocean, while NAO is more likely to have impacts on evaporation of the North Atlantic European areas. There is high agreement between models in simulating the effects of climate modes on evaporation of these regions. Land evaporation is found to be less sensitive to considered climate modes compared to oceanic evaporation. The spatial influence of major climate modes on global evaporation is slightly more significant for NAO and the IOD and slightly less significant for ENSO in the 1906–2000 period compared to the 2006–2100 period. This study allows us to obtain insight about the predictability of evaporation and hence, may improve the early-warning systems of climate extremes and water resource management.

Causal influences of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on global dust activities

“…Significant impacts of ENSO on atmospheric aerosol loading (Figures 2a and 5) may lead to a strong response of marine productivity to ENSO. The controls of ENSO on the concentration and transportation of atmospheric dust (Figure 2a) are consistent with the influences of ENSO on global wind patterns (Dai and Wigley, 2000;Le and Bae, 2020;.…”

“…Following the methodology utilized in recent works (Le et al, 2021;Le and Bae, 2020), we evaluate the null hypothesis of no Granger causality between ENSO and dust activities (i.e., dust deposition rate, dust optical thickness, and emission rate of dust) by using a multivariate predictive model (see Text S1).…”

“…Dust emission, transport, and deposition are driven by vegetation cover, soil moisture, precipitation, and wind speed (Carslaw et al, 2010;Kanakidou et al, 2018;Kok et al, 2021;Pi et al, 2019;Thornhill et al, 2020). Hence, ENSO impacts on these variables (Cai et al, 2021;Le and Bae, 2020; are likely to result in ENSO-induced changes in dust activities. For instance, ENSO is shown to have influences on dust activities over Australia (Marx et al, 2009), the Sahara and Amazon basin (Boy and Wilcke, 2008), the regions from the Arabian Peninsula to Central Asia (Huang et al, 2021), South America (Shao et al, 2013), and East Asia (Jeong et al, 2018).…”

Supplementary material to "Causal influences of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on global dust activities"

“…We estimate the probability of no Granger causality by applying a test of Granger causality (Le and Bae, 2020;Mosedale et al, 2006;Stern and Kaufmann, 2013) for the multivariate predictive model shown in equation 1.…”

Modeling Insights into Precipitation Deuterium Excess as an Indicator of Raindrop Evaporation in Lanzhou, China

“…Light isotopes are depleted in advance while heavy isotopes in raindrops are enriched [4][5][6], showing that there has been a decrease in the deuterium excess or d which equals δ 2 H − 8 × δ 18 O [7]. The evaporation and condensation are impacted by the different climate parameters [8,9], and the deuterium excess in meteoric water is also sensitive to these climate conditions [10][11][12], causing that the deuterium excess can be a useful indicator to trace the source of water vapor and assess the potential existence of the sub-cloud evaporation [13][14][15][16].…”