Response of hurricane-type vortices to global warming as simulated by ARPEGE-Climat at high resolution

Chauvin, Fabrice; Royer, Jean‐François; Déqué, Michel

doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0135-7

Cited by 134 publications

(138 citation statements)

References 30 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

126

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Meanwhile other modeling centers have started to perform short-term [O(10-year)] global climate simulations with horizontal grid spacings comparable to the WRF channel model (e.g., Chauvin et al 2006;Oouchi et al 2006;Bengtsson et al 2007;Lau and Ploshay 2009). A distinct advantage of all of these high-resolution models is their ability to at least partially resolve key mesoscale circulations and heating processes associated with organized convective cloud systems (cf.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Convectively coupled Kelvin and easterly waves in a regional climate simulation of the tropics

2009

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study evaluates the performance of a regional climate model in simulating two types of synoptic tropical weather disturbances: convectively-coupled Kelvin and easterly waves. Interest in these two wave modes stems from their potential predictability out to several weeks in advance, as well as a strong observed linkage between easterly waves and tropical cyclogenesis. The model is a recent version of the weather research and forecast (WRF) system with 36-km horizontal grid spacing and convection parameterized using a scheme that accounts for key convective triggering and inhibition processes. The domain spans the entire tropical belt between 45°S and 45°N with periodic boundary conditions in the east-west direction, and conditions at the meridional/lower boundaries specified based on observations. The simulation covers 6 years from 2000 to 2005, which is long enough to establish a statistical depiction of the waves through space-time spectral filtering of rainfall data, together with simple lagged-linear regression. Results show that both the horizontal phase speeds and three-dimensional structures of the waves are qualitatively well captured by the model in comparison to observations. However, significant biases in wave activity are seen, with generally overactive easterly waves and underactive Kelvin waves. Evidence is presented to suggest that these biases in wave activity (which are also correlated with biases in time-mean rainfall, as well as biases in the model's tropical cyclone climatology) stem in part from convection in the model coupling too strongly to rotational circulation anomalies. Nevertheless, the model is seen to do a reasonable job at capturing the genesis of tropical cyclones from easterly waves, with evidence for both wave accumulation and critical layer processes being importantly involved.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Convectively coupled Kelvin and easterly waves in a regional climate simulation of the tropics

2009

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…An intriguing question is whether the annual variation of such factors are independent or affected by the warm area. Chauvin et al (2006) found that the SSTs had a significant effect on the TC statistics, but was not the only factor. Their results suggested that the spatial SST structure was important as well as the magnitude.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…On the other hand, factors other than SST that may affect TCs are most likely not independent of the SSTs (shear, humidity, CAPE, El Niño, etc. ), so that the area of the warm sea may also be regarded as proxy for all these aspects (Chauvin et al, 2006). Klotzbach and Gray (2008) argued, however, that the statistical description is improved by combining sea-level pressure with SST in the statistical analysis of TCs.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Global climate models (GCMs) provide an important tool for making future climate scenarios, but these do not yet have a sufficient spatial resolution or a representation of the physical processes within the individual storm systems to give accurate results (Yoshimura et al, 2006;Chauvin et al, 2006;Henderson-Sellers et al, 1998;Jung et al, 2006;Vitard et al, 2007;Randall et al, 2007). Most of the GCMs with spatial resolution of 50-100 km or lower cannot accurately simulate the observed TC intensity (Meehls et al, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several model studies have investigated whether TCs will become more frequent or more intense under a global warming, and some model results indicate an increase in intensity and near-storm precipitation rates with CO 2 -induced warming (Knutson and Tuleya, 2004). But moderately highresolution model-based studies by Yoshimura et al (2006), Bengtsson et al (2006), andChauvin et al (2006) suggest a decreasing number of TCs globally, although the intensity and the number of intense TCs may increase (Meehls et al, 2007). One explanation for a reduction in the total number of TCs is that stronger warming aloft in the tropics results in enhanced stability of the tropical troposphere (Meehls et al, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

On tropical cyclone frequency and the warm pool area

Benestad

2009

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. The proposition that the rate of tropical cyclogenesis increases with the size of the "warm pool" is tested by comparing the seasonal variation of the warm pool area with the seasonality of the number of tropical cyclones. An analysis based on empirical data from the Northern Hemisphere is presented, where the warm pool associated with tropical cyclone activity is defined as the area, A, enclosed by the 26.5 • C SST isotherm. Similar analysis was applied to the temperature weighted area A T with similar results.An intriguing non-linear relationship of high statistical significance was found between the temperature weighted area in the North Atlantic and the North-West Pacific on the one hand and the number of cyclones, N, in the same ocean basin on the other, but this pattern was not found over the North Indian Ocean. A simple statistical model was developed, based on the historical relationship between N and A. The simple model was then validated against independent inter-annual variations in the seasonal cyclone counts in the North Atlantic, but the correlation was not statistically significant in the North-West Pacific. No correlation, however, was found between N and A in the North Indian Ocean.A non-linear relationship between the cyclone number and temperature weighted area may in some ocean basins explain both why there has not been any linear trend in the number of cyclones over time as well as the recent upturn in the number of Atlantic hurricanes. The results also suggest that the notion of the number of tropical cyclones being insensitive to the area A is a misconception.

show abstract

The NOW regional coupled model: Application to the tropical Indian Ocean climate and tropical cyclone activity

Samson

Masson

Lengaigne³

et al. 2014

J Adv Model Earth Syst

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper presents the NOW regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model built from the NEMO ocean and WRF atmospheric numerical models. This model is applied to the tropical Indian Ocean, with the oceanic and atmospheric components sharing a common 1 =4 horizontal grid. Long experiments are performed over the 1990-2009 period using the Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) and Kain-Fritsch (KF) cumulus parameterizations. Both simulations produce a realistic distribution of seasonal rainfall and a realistic northward seasonal migration of monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. At subseasonal time scales, the model reasonably reproduces summer monsoon active and break phases, although with underestimated rainfall and surface wind signals. Its relatively high resolution results in realistic spatial and seasonal distributions of tropical cyclones, but it fails to reproduce the strongest observed cyclone categories. At interannual time scales, the model reproduces the observed variability associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the delayed basin-wide warming/cooling induced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The timing of IOD occurrence in the model generally matches that of the observed events, confirming the influence of ENSO on the IOD development (through the effect of lateral boundary conditions in our simulations). Although the KF and BMJ simulations share a lot in common, KF strongly overestimates rainfall at all time scales. KF also overestimates the number of simulated cyclones by a factor two, while simulating stronger events (up to 55 m s 21) compared to BMJ (up to 40 m s 21). These results could be related to an overly active cumulus parameterization in KF.

show abstract

Response of hurricane-type vortices to global warming as simulated by ARPEGE-Climat at high resolution

Cited by 134 publications

References 30 publications

Convectively coupled Kelvin and easterly waves in a regional climate simulation of the tropics

Convectively coupled Kelvin and easterly waves in a regional climate simulation of the tropics

On tropical cyclone frequency and the warm pool area

The NOW regional coupled model: Application to the tropical Indian Ocean climate and tropical cyclone activity

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About