The self-purification capacity of semi-closed bays is closely related to the exchange process of open sea water. In recent years, with the enhancement of human development activities, environmental problems such as eutrophication, weak hydrodynamics, and poor water exchange capacity have appeared in the bays. In this paper, the water exchange time and flow field in Jiaozhou Bay (JZB) were investigated using the environmental fluid dynamics code with a coupled dye module. Specifically, Jiaozhou Bay was divided into seven zones to explore the effect mechanism of a monsoon on the water exchange process. A detailed analysis was performed on the current water exchange status in the highly polluted northeastern region of the bay and its influence on the surrounding areas. Based on the definition of the average residence time and considering the effect of the tracer release moment, the distribution of the water exchange time in the bay under three circumstances was obtained. Results showed that the timing of the tracer release exerted minimal influence on the average residence time. The water exchange process was influenced by a combination of astronomical and meteorological factors. The overall exchange capacity of the bay was strongest under the impact of a winter monsoon and tides, followed by a summer monsoon and tides, and the weakest exchange occurred under the influence of tides alone. Moreover, both summer and winter monsoons greatly facilitated water exchange in the heavily polluted northeastern region. However, pollutants from this region had a significant impact on surrounding areas during a summer monsoon. Changes in the structure and intensity of residual flow fields were the primary causes of exchange rate discrepancies.