Response to: Tobias et al. on the decline of CHD mortality in New Zealand

Hetzel, Basil S.; Dwyer, Terry

doi:10.1111/j.1753-6405.2008.00316.x

Cited by 2 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Age-specific all-cause mortality rates for the whole Australian population are also compared with those foreign-born 30 31. CSD mortality rates are available only for the whole Australian population, but there is justification that these are indicative of all-cause mortality rates, in the relevant period 5 7 9 11. For each sex/age group/census year, mortality rates due to CSD in the Australian population were calculated by taking the ratio N_mort/N_total in the raw dataset.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Current global epidemics in developing economies are similar in scale to those observed much earlier in the USA and Australia 7 8. Since the mid-twentieth century in particular, international epidemiological studies have assessed how proximal lifestyle risk factors such as tobacco smoking and diet-related hypertension, obesity and lipoprotein profiles can explain the patterns of heart disease and stroke in given population 7–13…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…That pattern shifted, with steep declines observed first in the USA and Australia, followed by falls in all western countries from the early 1980s onwards 14 15. The conventional, primarily period, explanation is that the balance of lifestyle change and introduction of rigorous clinical management protocols, including coronary care and pharmacological management of hypertension and hypercholesterolaemia, drive these patterns 5 7 11 16 17…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Epidemiological transition: a historical analysis of immigration patterns by country of origin (1861–1986) related to circulatory system diseases and all-cause mortality in twentieth-century Australia

Kelleher,

Kelly,

Segurado

et al. 2023

BMJ Open

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Background and objectivesCirculatory system disease (CSD) patterns vary over time and between countries, related to lifestyle risk factors, associated in turn with socioeconomic circumstances. Current global CSD epidemics in developing economies are similar in scale to those observed previously in the USA and Australasia. Australia exhibits an important macroeconomic phenomenon as a rapidly transitioning economy with high immigration throughout the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. We wished to examine how that historical immigration related to CSD patterns subsequently.Methods and settingWe provide a novel empirical analysis employing census-derived place of birth by age bracket and sex from 1891 to 1986, in order to map patterns of immigration against CSD mortality rates from 1907 onwards. Age-specific generalised additive models for both CSD mortality in the general population, and all-cause mortality for the foreign-born (FB) only, from 1910 to 1980 were also devised for both males and females.ResultsThe percentage of FB fell from 32% in 1891 to 9.8% in 1947. Rates of CSD rose consistently, particularly from the 1940s onwards, peaked in the 1960s, then declined sharply in the 1980s and showed a strong period effect across age groups and genders. The main effects of age and census year and their interaction were highly statistically significant for CSD mortality for males (p<0.001, each term) and for females (p<0.001, each term). The main effect of age and year were statistically significant for all-cause mortality minus net migration rates for the FB females (each p<0.001), and for FB males, age (p<0.001) was significant.ConclusionsWe argue our empirical calculations, supported by historical and socioepidemiological evidence, employing immigration patterns as a proxy for epidemiological transition, affirm the life course hypothesis that both early life circumstances and later life lifestyle drive CSD patterns.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Epidemiological transition: a historical analysis of immigration patterns by country of origin (1861–1986) related to circulatory system diseases and all-cause mortality in twentieth-century Australia

Kelleher,

Kelly,

Segurado

et al. 2023

BMJ Open

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Current global epidemics in developing economies are similar in scale to those observed much earlier in the USA and Australia [7][8] . Since the mid twentieth century in particular, international epidemiological studies have assessed how proximal lifestyle risk factors such as tobacco smoking and diet-related hypertension, obesity and lipoprotein profiles can explain the patterns of heart disease and stroke in given populations [7][8][9][10][11][12][13] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…That pattern shifted, with steep declines observed first in the USA and Australia, followed by falls in all western countries from the early 1980s onwards [14][15] . The conventional, primarily period, explanation is that the balance of lifestyle change and introduction of rigorous clinical management protocols, including coronary care and pharmacological management of hypertension and hypercholesterolemia drive these patterns 5,7,11,16 . The IMPACT models suggest that declining incidence is driven primarily by shifts in risk factors, rather than treatments 4 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiological transition in Australia: An analysis of immigration patterns in relation to circulatory system diseases and all-cause mortality in the mid-twentieth century

Kelleher

Kelly

Segurado

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Background and Objectives: Circulatory System Diseases (CSD) patterns vary over time and between countries, related to lifestyle risk factors, associated in turn with socio-economic circumstances. Current global CSD epidemics in developing economies are similar in scale to those observed previously in the USA and Australasia. Australia exhibits an important macroeconomic phenomenon as a rapidly transitioning economy with high immigration throughout the 19th and 20th centuries. We wished to examine how that historical immigration related to CSD patterns subsequently. Methods and Setting: We provide a novel empirical analysis employing census-derived place of birth by age bracket and sex from 1891 to 1986, in order to map patterns of immigration against CSD mortality rates from 1907 onwards. Age-specific generalised additive models for both CSD mortality in the general population, and all-cause mortality for the foreign-born (FB) only, from 1910 to 1980 were also devised for both males and females. Results: The % FB fell from 32% in 1891 to 9.8% in 1947. Rates of CSD rose consistently, particularly from the 1940s onwards, peaked in the 1960s, then declined sharply in the 1980s and showed a strong period effect across age groups and genders. The main effects of age and census year and their interaction were highly statistically significant for CSD mortality for males (p < 0.001, each term) and for females (p < 0.001, each term). The main effect of age was statistically significant for all-cause mortality minus net migration rates for the FB males (p =0.005) and for FB females, both age (p < 0.001) and the interaction term (p=0.002) were significant. Conclusions: We argue our empirical calculations, supported by historical and socio-epidemiological evidence, employing immigration patterns as a proxy for epidemiological transition, affirm the lifecourse hypothesis that both early life circumstances and later life lifestyle drive CSD patterns.

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Response to: Tobias et al. on the decline of CHD mortality in New Zealand

Cited by 2 publications

References 10 publications

Epidemiological transition: a historical analysis of immigration patterns by country of origin (1861–1986) related to circulatory system diseases and all-cause mortality in twentieth-century Australia

Epidemiological transition: a historical analysis of immigration patterns by country of origin (1861–1986) related to circulatory system diseases and all-cause mortality in twentieth-century Australia

Epidemiological transition in Australia: An analysis of immigration patterns in relation to circulatory system diseases and all-cause mortality in the mid-twentieth century

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