Responses of crop yield growth to global temperature and socioeconomic changes

Iizumi, Toshichika; Furuya, Jun; Shen, Zhihong; Kim, Wonsik; Okada, Masashi; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Nishimori, Motoki

doi:10.1038/s41598-017-08214-4

Cited by 170 publications

(157 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…Liu et al () and Zhao et al () recently showed that up‐scaled simulations for representative locations, as suggested by van Bussel et al (), have similar temperature impacts to 0.5 o x 0.5 o global grid simulations or statistical approaches. The projected impact for spring wheat reported here is similar to that reported by Iizumi et al (), who reported global spring wheat production to increase by 1.43%–1.60% and 1.43%–1.61% under 1.5 and 2.0 scenarios using a global gridded simulation approach under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming

Liu

Martre

Ewert

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

134

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Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre‐industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre‐industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi‐crop and multi‐climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by −2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and −2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980–2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter‐annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer—India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming

Liu

Martre

Ewert

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

134

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Worldwide, historical crop yield trends have more commonly shown reductions rather than increases due to climate change even though the atmospheric CO 2 concentration has been increasing (Porter et al 2014). Global and regional studies mostly indicated yield reductions for wheat and maize, especially in low latitudes (Bassu et al 2014, Porter et al 2014, Rosenzweig et al 2014, Asseng et al 2015, Zhao et al 2017, and many results found that limiting warming to 1.5°C would result in less severe negative impacts on wheat and maize yields than at 2.0°C (Schleussner et al 2016, Huang et al 2017, Iizumi et al 2017. Interestingly, a recent study (Ruane et al 2018) found that yields for the C 3 crops including wheat improve in nearly all regions around the world for a 2.0°C warmer world as CO 2 effects would offset the negative impacts of increasing temperature.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on Canadian yields of spring wheat, canola and maize for global warming levels of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, 2.5 °C and 3.0 °C

Qian

Zhang

Smith

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Science-based assessments of climate change impacts on cropping systems under different levels of global warming are essential for informing stakeholders which global climate targets and potential adaptation strategies may be effective. A comprehensive evaluation of climate change impacts on Canada's crop production under different levels of global warming is currently lacking. The DayCent, DNDC and DSSAT models were employed to estimate changes in crop yield and production for three prominent crops including spring wheat, canola and maize in current agricultural regions of Canada. Four warming scenarios with global mean temperature changes of 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C and 3.0°C above the pre-industrial level were investigated. Climate scenarios from 20 Global Climate Models, included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and downscaled with a multivariate quantile mapping bias correction method, were used to drive the crop simulation models. Simulated yield changes demonstrate a potentially positive impact on spring wheat and canola yields at all four temperature levels, particularly when shifting planting date is considered in the simulations. There was less consensus for the currently utilized short-season maize cultivars, as yields were only projected to increase by DNDC compared to a slight decrease by DayCent and a slight increase up to 2.5°C followed by a decrease at 3.0°C by DSSAT. These findings indicate that climate at the global warming levels up to 3.0°C above the pre-industrial level could be beneficial for crop production of small grains in Canada. However, these benefits declined after warming reached 2.5°C.

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“…Moreover, water availability for irrigation may become an increasingly critical limiting factor (Scanlon et al, 2012). Notably, in most assessments of climate change impacts on crops, maize stands out to be the most negatively affected (Deryng et al, 2014;Iizumi et al, 2017;Tebaldi & Lobell, 2018).…”

Section: 1029/2018ef000995mentioning

confidence: 99%

When Will Current Climate Extremes Affecting Maize Production Become the Norm?

et al. 2019

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We estimate the effects of climate anomalies (heat stress and drought) on annual maize production, variability, and trend from the country level to the global scale using a statistical model. Moderate climate anomalies and extremes are diagnosed with two indicators of heat stress and drought computed over maize growing regions during the most relevant period of maize growth. The calibrated model linearly combines these two indicators into a single Combined Stress Index. The Combined Stress Index explains 50% of the observed global production variability in the period 1980–2010. We apply the model on an ensemble of high‐resolution global climate model simulations. Global maize losses, due to extreme climate events with 10‐year return times during the period 1980–2010, will become the new normal already at 1.5 °C global warming levels (approximately 2020s). At 2 °C warming (late 2030s), maize areas will be affected by heat stress and drought never experienced before, affecting many major and minor production regions.

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Responses of crop yield growth to global temperature and socioeconomic changes

Cited by 170 publications

References 43 publications

Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming

Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming

Climate change impacts on Canadian yields of spring wheat, canola and maize for global warming levels of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, 2.5 °C and 3.0 °C

When Will Current Climate Extremes Affecting Maize Production Become the Norm?

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