Retail prices of nutritious food rose more in countries with higher COVID-19 case counts

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has curtailed lives and livelihoods, leading to price spikes for some foods and declines for others. We compare monthly retail food prices in up to 181 countries from January 2019 to June 2021, test for differences over time and find that average prices rose significantly, especially for more nutritious food groups in countries with higher COVID-19 case counts. Analysis of retail prices by food group complements data on farm commodity prices and overall consumer price indexes, helping to guide policy for resilience and response to shocks.

COVID-19 mobility restrictions and stay-at-home behaviour in 2020 were associated with higher retail food prices worldwide

“…We then calculate month-to-month percentage point change in price level for each food item in each market. Food items were grouped into one of eight categories (breads and cereals; nuts, seeds, and pulses; fruits and vegetables; meat; fish and seafood; dairy and eggs; oils and fats; sugar and confectionary) based on an adapted version of the COICOP classification system, detailed in Bai et al (2021b , 2022) . The proportion of price observations categorized into each food group in each country is provided in Fig.…”

“…This study provides a first global assessment of how retail consumer prices differ during periods of more stringent mobility restriction policies, and at places and times with more stay-at-home behavior, when controlling for disease case counts and other factors. Previous work on global retail food prices has shown higher prices associated with higher COVID-19 case counts ( Bai et al, 2022 ). Adding the effects of mobility restriction policies and stay-at-home behavior provides additional insight into how government and individual response to the pandemic might affect food markets.…”

Harnessing the connectivity of climate change, food systems and diets: Taking action to improve human and planetary health

“…Nutritious foods are more expensive relative to staples, with leafy green vegetables, vitamin A-rich fruits and vegetables, and many ASF being especially expensive in many parts of the world ( Headey and Alderman, 2019 ). In addition, the cost of nutritious foods increased more than other foods during the COVID-19 pandemic ( Bai et al, 2022 ). Meanwhile, lower-cost UPFs (shown in Fig.…”

The Role of Alternative Crops in an Upcoming Global Food Crisis: A Concise Review

“…Typically, the balance between food prices and household income/assets influences food access. The prices of agricultural commodities usually depend on their supply and demand [ 60 ]. Shifts in their supply/demand equilibrium tend to alter their price.…”