Rethinking Highway Effects on Population Change

Abstract

Little systematic work has been undertaken to explain highway impacts on population change. In this study, the authors review the literature in regional economics and demographics in an attempt to shed light on the mechanisms by which investments in highway infrastructure influence population change. First, they categorize the indirect causal paths by which highways influence population change at the county and municipal levels. Then they propose a spatio-temporal approach to revisit highway effects on population change from the stage of highway development and areal characteristics specifically. Finally, it is concluded that at the county and municipal levels, the effect of highways on population change varies from preconstruction to postconstruction periods and across urban, suburban, and rural areas.A lthough several theories have been offered, accompanied with numerous empirical studies, to explain the effects that highways have on economic growth and development, little systematic work has been undertaken to synthesize the effects that highway investments have on population change. Furthermore, much of this vast literature is scattered across several disciplines, ranging from planning to economics to geography to sociology, which has resulted in a complex mixture of theoretical and empirical approaches. To our knowledge, no one has attempted to synthesize this literature and draw common themes. In this study, we analyze the mechanisms by which highways influence population change by examining theoretical explanations and empirical findings in an attempt to provide that synthesis.We propose to understand the mechanisms by addressing two questions: (a) What are the possible paths by which investments in highways influence population change? (b) Do highway-investment effects on population change vary temporally from preconstruction, construction, and postconstruction stages as well as spatially across urban, suburban, and rural areas? In the following sections, we answer these questions by summarizing and analyzing the extant literature of highway effects on population change. First, at the county and municipal AUTHORS' NOTE: An earlier version of this article was presented at

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“…Third, accessibility, which is found to be an important factor of population change in many existing studies (see [36] for a summary of the literature), had no effects on population change in 1980-1990 and 1990-2000. Only accessibility index 1 had significant but negligible effects on population change in 1970-1980.…”

“…Transportation accessibility is best regarded as a facilitator in strengthening the spatial lag effects of population redistribution. Nevertheless, there are many other definitions of the role that transportation accessibility plays in affecting population change (see [36] for a summary of the literature). Apparently the definition of facilitator can best explain our findings.…”

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