Rethinking Society for the 21st Century

Progress, International Panel on Social

doi:10.1017/9781108399647

Cited by 12 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 0 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…A pivotal development in economics in recent years has been the wide recognition of the critical importance of sustainable development [Stiglitz et al , 2009; Fleurbaey et al , 2014; International Panel on Social Progress (IPSP), 2018]. This goes beyond the specifics of “sustainable” economic, financial and budgetary management to critical social and environmental sustainability, on which economies fundamentally depend.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time to build a new practice of foresight for national economies? Ireland, and uncertain futures in forecasts and scenarios

O’Mahony

Luukkanen

Vehmas

et al. 2023

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Purpose The literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy of forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking. Forecasts are subject to the systemic uncertainty of human systems, considerable event-driven uncertainty, and show biases towards optimistic growth paths. The purpose of this study is to consider approaches to improve economic foresight. Design/methodology/approach This study describes the practice of economic foresight as evolving in two separate, non-overlapping branches, short-term economic forecasting, and long-term scenario analysis of development, the latter found in studies of climate change and sustainability. The unique case of Ireland is considered, a country that has experienced both steep growth and deep troughs, with uncertainty that has confounded forecasting. The challenges facing forecasts are discussed, with brief review of the drivers of growth, and of long-term economic scenarios in the global literature. Findings Economic forecasting seeks to manage uncertainty by improving the accuracy of quantitative point forecasts, and related models. Yet, systematic forecast failures remain, and the economy defies prediction, even in the near-term. In contrast, long-term scenario analysis eschews forecasts in favour of a set of plausible or possible alternative scenarios. Using alternative scenarios is a response to the irreducible uncertainty of complex systems, with sophisticated approaches employed to integrate qualitative and quantitative insights. Research limitations/implications To support economic and fiscal policymaking, it is necessary support advancement in approaches to economic foresight, to improve handling of uncertainty and related risk. Practical implications While European Union Regulation (EC) 1466/97 mandates pursuit of improved accuracy, in short-term economic forecasts, there is now a case for implementing advanced foresight approaches, for improved analysis, and more robust decision-making. Social implications Building economic resilience and adaptability, as part of a sustainable future, requires both long-term strategic planning, and short-term policy. A 21st century policymaking process can be better supported by analysis of alternative scenarios. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the article is original in considering the application of scenario foresight approaches, in economic forecasting. The study has value in improving the baseline forecast methods, that are fundamental to contemporary economics, and in bringing the field of economics into the heart of foresight.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time to build a new practice of foresight for national economies? Ireland, and uncertain futures in forecasts and scenarios

O’Mahony

Luukkanen

Vehmas

et al. 2023

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Across forty years of evolution in thinking on sustainable development, the debate on the place of growth has been central [1][2][3]. While economic growth can be linked to improvements in welfare, and poverty alleviation, it is now broadly accepted that it is also a mega-driver of global climate change and ecological breakdown [4][5][6] and drives problems of equity and growing in-country inequality [7][8][9][10]. The question of how to achieve sustainable development in the 21st century continues to be accompanied by disagreement on the role of economic growth, including the growthdegrowth debate [11,12], prospects for green growth [13], limits to growth [14], and questions on the implications of productivity growth [15].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards General Theory of Sustainable Development: A Sustainability Window Approach with All Possible Scenario Paths

Luukkanen,

Vehmas,

Kaivo-oja

et al. 2024

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Across decades of contemporary discussion on sustainable development, a core debate has concerned the relationship between the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of sustainability. In recent years, a debate on economic growth versus degrowth has been going on discussing whether economic growth can be sustainable in environmental terms and whether economic degrowth can be sustainable in social terms. This conceptual and theoretical article has used the Sustainability Window, or ‘SuWi’ method, to theoretically determine the sustainable window of economies, as upper and lower bounds of future change in GDP, that could be deemed in line with environmental and social sustainability. All theoretically possible scenario paths of development are considered by combining the economic, environmental, and social dimensions, with the environmental and social productivities of GDP. In moving to sustainability analysis through SuWi it is noted that only four of the logically possible scenario paths could be considered theoretically 'sustainable’, and only if adhering to strict conditions. Two of the hypothesised scenarios involve economic growth and two of economic degrowth. The approach, including calculation formulas, has many potential uses in providing analysis and support to 21st century sustainability policymaking, including the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

show abstract

“…Across forty years of evolution in thinking on sustainable development, the debate on the place of growth has been central [1][2][3]. While economic growth can be linked to improvements in welfare and poverty alleviation, it is now broadly accepted that it is also a mega-driver of global climate change and ecological breakdown [4][5][6] and drives problems of equity and growing in-country inequality [7][8][9][10]. The question of how to achieve sustainable development in the 21st century continues to be accompanied by disagreement on the role of economic growth, including the growth-degrowth debate [11,12], prospects for green growth [13], limits to growth [14], and questions on the implications of productivity growth [15].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards a General Theory of Sustainable Development: Using a Sustainability Window Approach to Explore All Possible Scenario Paths of Economic Growth and Degrowth

Luukkanen,

Vehmas,

Kaivo-oja

et al. 2024

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Across decades of contemporary discussion on sustainable development, a core concern has been the balance between economic, social, and environmental dimensions. A critical strand of the debate focuses on economic growth versus economic degrowth and, more specifically, on whether economic growth can be sustainable in environmental terms and whether degrowth can be sustainable in social terms. This conceptual and theoretical article used the Sustainability Window, or “SuWi”’ method, to theoretically determine the sustainable window of economies. The window is defined as the upper and lower bounds of future change in GDP that could be deemed in line with achieving both environmental and social sustainability. The conceptual analysis considers all theoretically possible scenario paths for development by combining the outcome paths of economic, environmental, and social dimensions with the environmental and social productivities of GDP. Through SuWi analysis, it is found that only four of the logically possible scenario paths could be considered theoretically “sustainable”—two cases involving economic growth and two of degrowth. In the cases of each of the four paths, sustainability only emerges where they adhere to strict conditions in terms of environmental and social outcomes, as well as related productivities. The SuWi approach and its applied analytical formulas have many potential uses in 21st-century policymaking for sustainability, including supporting the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. It provides a unique and comprehensive theoretical and analytical framework that enables the categorisation of the complex challenges of sustainability and quantitative analysis of policy choices. Such foresight analysis could greatly assist in providing an evidence base for future development planning and policy formulation, ex ante of locking in a pathway. Further implementation in applied studies that explore a comprehensive indicator set, robust and consistent across all relevant dimensions, offers a promising opportunity to advance empirical analysis of key questions in sustainable development globally at a critical juncture in human history.

show abstract

Rethinking Society for the 21st Century

Cited by 12 publications

References 0 publications

Time to build a new practice of foresight for national economies? Ireland, and uncertain futures in forecasts and scenarios

Time to build a new practice of foresight for national economies? Ireland, and uncertain futures in forecasts and scenarios

Towards General Theory of Sustainable Development: A Sustainability Window Approach with All Possible Scenario Paths

Towards a General Theory of Sustainable Development: Using a Sustainability Window Approach to Explore All Possible Scenario Paths of Economic Growth and Degrowth

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About