Rethinking Third-Party Interventions into Civil Wars: An Actor-Centric Approach

Abstract

Studies of the decision to intervene into ongoing civil wars should focus on those making the decision, not the conflict. We adopt such an "actor-centric" approach and discuss third-party intervention by emphasizing convergent and divergent interests and the connections between potential interveners, actual interveners, and civil war states. Our model furthermore differentiates between interventions on the side of the government and opposition and takes the sequence of interventions in the same conflict into account. The results from estimation of a mixture cure survival model support our theoretical framework and expectations. This paper thus advances our understanding not only of the effects of intervention, but also the motivation and decision to intervene.

Jumping into the Fray: Alliances, Power, Institutions, and the Timing of Conflict Expansion

“…By building a model of conflict expansion and joining we can be confident that we have alleviated some of the selection problems associated with prior work such as the assumption that each conflict has the same probability of expanding. We also make an effort to account for the strategic environment in which states act (Croco and Teo 2005;Findley and Teo 2006). Future research should work to further incorporate how the joining decisions of other states impacts conflict expansion.…”

The Past, Present, and Future of U.S. Ground Interventions: Identifying Trends, Characteristics, and Signposts

“…Specifically, the United States Regan, 2002. 37 Yoon, 1997;Michael G. Findley and Tze Kwang Teo, "Rethinking Third-Party Interventions into Civil Wars: An Actor-Centric Approach," The Journal of Politics, Vol. 68, No.…”

“…43 Huth, 1998. 44 Findley and Teo, 2006. 45 Yoon, 1997;Rost and Greig, 2011. 46 Yoon, 1997. 47 Kathman, 2010;Rost and Greig, 2011. 48 Mullenbach and Matthews, 2008. …”

External Threats and Military Intervention: The United States and the Caribbean Basin

“…Empirical studies have found that intervention decisions depend upon both the characteristics of the target state (Gent, 2008, Regan, 2000 and the potential interveners (Findley andTeo, 2006, Lemke andRegan, 2004), as well as their shared ties (Saideman, 2001). Empirical studies have found that intervention decisions depend upon both the characteristics of the target state (Gent, 2008, Regan, 2000 and the potential interveners (Findley andTeo, 2006, Lemke andRegan, 2004), as well as their shared ties (Saideman, 2001).…”