Retirement Age Farmers’ Exit and Disinvestment from Farming

Abstract

The aging of farmers in the US today coincides with fluctuating incomes resulting from recent market price volatility and policy changes. We evaluate how farmers' retirement or exit, as well as their disinvestment from farming in preparation for retirement, are affected by economic and demographic factors. Exit and disinvestment are modeled as the outcome of intertemporal utility maximization, and farm-level data from the Census of Agriculture are used to estimate the probability of retirement-age farmers' exit and disinvestment for the 1992-2012 period. The results show that farm size matters the most, with larger farms less likely to exit but more likely to disinvest and scale back, presumably to a new optimal size. Demographic factors such as gender, race, and age have statistically significant but relatively small impacts. Regional differences, the size of the non-farm economy, and opportunities to diversify income also affect exit. However, flow economic variables, such as current year return-on-assets and agricultural support payments, are not associated with exit and disinvestment. Given that US farmers are now facing significant income volatility, the findings point to a level of resilience. The results suggesting that current and recent income fluctuations are less likely to drive the exit of retirement age farmers have important policy implications.

Perceptions of an ageing agricultural workforce and farmers’ productivity strategies: Evidence from Prachinburi Province, Thailand

“…In line with other studies (e.g. Griffin et al, 2019), our results revealed that household income and farm size were significantly associated with the perceived higher likelihood of exit to the retirement of ageing farmers. In a similar vein, the study by Hu and Zhong (2013) concluded that farmers' intention to abandon land management has a negative impact on agriculture output.…”

Beginning farmers' entry and exit: evidence from county level data

“…Williamson (2017) shows significant age-related difference in growth trajectories of surviving BFRs between 1999 and 2014. Nadolnyak et al (2019) identified the economic, demographic and weather related factors that affect exit of BFRs, while Griffin et al (2019) evaluated the factors that affect exit of retirement age farmers.…”

The Determinants of Beginning Farm Success

“…In contrast, past succession exerted a significant and positive employment growth effect. Griffin, Hartarska, and Nadolnyak (2019) used Census of Agriculture data to estimate the probability of retirement-age farmers' exit and disinvestment for the 1992-2012 period. They found that larger farms were less likely to exit but more likely to disinvest and scale down the operation.…”