RETRACTED ARTICLE: The prediction of the lifetime of the new coronavirus in the USA using mathematical models

Abstract

The World Health Organization (WHO) on December 31, 2019, was informed of several cases of respiratory diseases of unknown origin in the city of Wuhan in the Chinese Province of Hubei, the clinical manifestations of which were similar to those of viral pneumonia and manifested as fever, cough, and shortness of breath. And, the disease caused by the virus is named the new coronavirus disease 2019 and it will be abbreviated as 2019-nCoV and COVID-19. As of January 30, 2020, the WHO classified this epidemic as a global health emergency (Chung et al. in Radiology 295(1):202–207, 2020). It is an international real-life problem. Due to deaths, globally everyone is under fear. Now, it is the responsibility of researchers to give hope to the people. In this article, we aim to better protect people and general pandemic preparedness by predicting the lifetime of the disease-causing virus using three mathematical models. This article deals with a complex real-life problem people face all over the world, an international real-life problem. The main focus is on the USA due to large infection and death due to coronavirus and thereby the life of every individual is uncertain. The death counts of the USA from February 29 to April 22, 2020, are used in this article as a data set. The death counts of the USA are fitted by the solutions of three mathematical models and a solution to an international problem is achieved. Based on the death rate, the lifetime of the coronavirus COVID-19 is predicted as 1464.76 days from February 29, 2020. That is, after March 2024 there will be no death in the USA due to COVID-19 if everyone follows the guidelines of WHO and the advice of healthcare workers. People and government can get prepared for this situation and many lives can be saved. It is the contribution of soft computing. Finally, this article suggests several steps to control the spread and severity of the disease. The research work, the lifetime prediction presented in this article is entirely new and differs from all other articles in the literature.

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Evolving deep convolutional neutral network by hybrid sine–cosine and extreme learning machine for real-time COVID19 diagnosis from X-ray images

“…To achieve a balance between the exploitation and exploration phases, the domain of the sinus and cosine functions in Eqs. ( 8), (9), and (10) varies by Eq. ( 11).…”

“…However, the early diagnosis of coronavirus has become a challenge for scientists due to the limited treatments and vaccines [6][7][8][9][10]. The polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test has been introduced as one of the primary methods for detecting COVID19 [11].…”

COVID-19 as a continuous-time stochastic process

“…An understanding of Covid-19 dynamics through stochastic modeling should thus greatly assist in the control and prevention of this infectious disease [10]. Surprisingly, however, the stochastic modeling for Covid-19 has yet been relatively rare compared to its deterministic counterparts [9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16]. Probably the unique features of the outbreak are limiting the applicability of all existing models.…”

Management of and Revitalization Strategy for Megacities Under Major Public Health Emergencies: A Case Study of Wuhan

“…On December 8, 2019, pneumonia of unknown cause appeared in Wuhan, and indications pointed to a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2 (1). Facing the rampant spread of the disease and with increased awareness of the virus (2), Wuhan moved to close all transportation access into and out of the city on January 23, 2020, to prevent further spread of the virus (3).…”

“…The problems can be categorized into five key dimensions of urban issues as follows (10). (1) The first is medical treatment: Although Wuhan has a number of well-known hospitals, there are shortcomings in the public health system and facilities at the grassroots level that make it difficult to cope with the outbreak of a pandemic. (2) The second dimension is lifeline engineering and infrastructure: Municipal infrastructure sustained normal city operations during the pandemic period, but the spare capacity of lifeline engineering and infrastructure is insufficient, and the city's disaster control and mitigation capability still needs to be improved overall.…”