RETRACTED ARTICLE: Thermodynamic imaging calculation model on COVID-19 transmission and epidemic cities risk level assessment—data from Hubei in China

Pang, Shaoning; Wu, Jiaqi; Lü, Yinhua

doi:10.1007/s00779-020-01478-0

Cited by 2 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…As an infectious disease, the COVID-19 pneumonia virus is a typical public health event, so it has a period of occurrence, development, evolution, decline, and termination. Pang et al (2021) divided the transmission risk of the new coronavirus into four stages: the brewing stage, initial stage, outbreak stage, and stable stage. According to this, we can divide the transmission risk of the epidemic on the “Diamond Princess” into five stages: germination stage, growth stage, development stage, stable stage, and recession stage.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Using on-line data to detect confirmed cases of COVID-19, using a multiple vector regression model to predict the number of infected people in Shenzhen, and assessing the risk of cities during the pandemic is key to scientific decision-making and promoting the sustainable development of cities ( Huang et al, 2020 ). Based on the principles of thermodynamics, the COVID-19 virus in 17 cities in Hubei Province was analysed, and the risk assessment of each city was emphasised, and the risk level was determined, which provided technical support for the prevention and control of this urban epidemic ( Pang, Wu, & Lu, 2021 ). Similarly, we calculate the risk of spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in a closed environment based on epidemic data; different from other studies, we systematically evaluate the risk holistically and at each stage.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Risk assessment model and application of COVID-19 virus transmission in closed environments at sea

Pang

JianHua

Fang

2021

Sustainable Cities and Society

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This paper focuses on the risk assessment methods of novel coronavirus pneumonia virus (COVID-19) pneumonia virus spreading in closed marine environment. Firstly, the possibility of the spread of new coronavirus in closed environments at sea and the consequences of the harm caused by the epidemic are classified into five levels, and the corresponding risk assessment framework is constructed, and the risk assessment model of the spread of COVID-19 pneumonia virus in closed environment at sea is established taking the Japanese “Diamond Princess” as an example, the model is applied and its output is analysed. Finally, the proportion of the cumulative confirmed cases on the Diamond Princess is calculated, and the possibility of viral infection of Diamond Princess passengers in this COVID-19 pneumonia epidemic in four different risk transmission stages are assessed, and the corresponding risk assessment is undertaken. Through the calculation of risk assessment value, the five stages of the epidemic are established to assess the risk of the “Diamond Princess” outbreak. The research method in the present work helps to provide a risk assessment and analysis idea for the risk of spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in a closed environment at sea.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk assessment model and application of COVID-19 virus transmission in closed environments at sea

Pang

JianHua

Fang

2021

Sustainable Cities and Society

Self Cite

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“…Key epidemiological parameters such as the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) [34,35] have found widespread application in monitoring the transmission dynamics and risk assessment of COVID-19. Additionally, scholars have applied various methods such as spatial stratified heterogeneity statistics [34], Kalman filtering [36][37][38], Bayesian maximum entropy [39], head/tail breaks [40], and more [41][42][43][44][45]. These methods have been employed for various applications in modelling the spatiotemporal spread of COVID-19, including identifying spatiotemporal distribution patterns [46,47], mapping spatiotemporal disease distributions [48], describing spatiotemporal characteristics of the epidemic [49][50][51], and assessing its impact on production and daily life in China [52][53][54].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Head/Tail Breaks-Based Approach to Characterizing Space-Time Risks of COVID-19 Epidemic in China’s Cities

Wu,

Hu,

Luo

et al. 2023

IJGI

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The novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) pandemic has caused enormous impacts around the world. Characterizing the risk dynamics for urgent epidemics such as COVID-19 is of great benefit to epidemic control and emergency management. This article presents a novel approach to characterizing the space-time risks of the COVID-19 epidemic. We analyzed the heavy-tailed distribution and spatial hierarchy of confirmed COVID-19 cases in 367 cities from 20 January to 12 April 2020, and population density data for 2019, and modelled two parameters, COVID-19 confirmed cases and population density, to measure the risk value of each city and assess the epidemic from the perspective of spatial and temporal changes. The evolution pattern of high-risk areas was assessed from a spatial and temporal perspective. The number of high-risk cities decreased from 57 in week 1 to 6 in week 12. The results show that the risk measurement model based on the head/tail breaks approach can describe the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the risk of COVID-19, and can better predict the risk trend of future epidemics in each city and identify the risk of future epidemics even during low incidence periods. Compared with the traditional risk assessment method model, it pays more attention to the differences in the spatial level of each city and provides a new perspective for the assessment of the risk level of epidemic transmission. It has generality and flexibility and provides a certain reference for the prevention of infectious diseases as well as a theoretical basis for government implementation strategies.

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RETRACTED ARTICLE: Thermodynamic imaging calculation model on COVID-19 transmission and epidemic cities risk level assessment—data from Hubei in China

Cited by 2 publications

References 16 publications

Risk assessment model and application of COVID-19 virus transmission in closed environments at sea

Risk assessment model and application of COVID-19 virus transmission in closed environments at sea

A Head/Tail Breaks-Based Approach to Characterizing Space-Time Risks of COVID-19 Epidemic in China’s Cities

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