Retrospective and prospective voting in a one-party- dominant democracy: Taiwan’s 1996 presidential election

Hsieh, John Fuh‐sheng; Lacy, Dean; Niou, Emerson M. S.

doi:10.1007/978-1-4757-5127-7_7

Cited by 12 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Previous research has also provided a wide range of evidence for prospective voting: voters care for parties' policy positions and specific proposals offered in election campaigns (Downs ; Budge & Farlie ; Hsieh et al. ; Elinder et al. ).…”

Section: Expanding Retrospective Voting To Pledgesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Retrospective pledge voting: A comparative study of the electoral consequences of government parties’ pledge fulfilment

Matthieß

2020

European J Political Res

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Does pledge fulfilment bear any electoral consequences for government parties? While previous research on retrospective voting has largely focused on electoral accountability with respect to the economy, the theoretical framework presented in this study links government parties' performance to their previous electoral pledges. It is argued that government parties are more likely to be rewarded by voters when they have fulfilled more pledges during the legislative term. Good pledge performance of a party is associated with the ability to maximise policy benefits (accomplishment) and to be a responsible actor that will stick to its promises in the future as well (competence). Analysing data from 69 elections in 14 countries shows that a government party's electoral outcome is affected by its previous pledge performance. A government party that fulfils a higher share of election pledges is more likely to prevent electoral losses. This finding indicates that voters react at the polls to party pledge fulfilment, which highlights the crucial role of promissory representation in democratic regimes. Surprisingly and in contrast with economic voting, there is no evidence that retrospective pledge voting is moderated by clarity of responsibility.

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Section: Expanding Retrospective Voting To Pledgesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Retrospective pledge voting: A comparative study of the electoral consequences of government parties’ pledge fulfilment

Matthieß

2020

European J Political Res

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“…(8) Hsieh et al (1998), who empirically support the economic voting theory based on the 1996 Taiwan presidential election, our paper contributes to the literature by offering different findings. Hence, among all the equations, while the coefficient for PSD is positive but not significant, in five of the seven specifications in which MAY is included the t-value indicates significance at the 10% level.…”

Section: Estimation Resultsmentioning

confidence: 84%

Does candidates' advertising spending help winning?

Chang¹

2009

Journal of Economic Policy Reform

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This paper investigates the importance of political expenditures as the primary determinants of vote shares for the Taiwan 2004 legislator campaigns with multi-member districts. Our main findings are as follows. First, advertising spending, candidates in the same party as the mayor, the education level of voters and the degree of race competition had a strong effect on the candidates' vote shares but not on economic performance. Second, the advertising spending of both incumbents and challengers had a significant effect on vote shares, but the effects were greater for challengers than for incumbents. Third, the two major political camps, that is, the Pan-Blue and Pan-Green, showed that spending exerts a corresponding influence on vote shares. Fourth, we also discovered that the spending coefficients for the winners were larger than those for the losers. Finally, the logit model demonstrates the result of the impact of advertising expenditures on the predicted probability of winning the election.political advertising, campaign spending, vote shares, Pan-Blue, Pan-Green, logit model,

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“…Hsieh et al (1998) tested the retrospective and prospective voting in Taiwan using the first popular 1996 presidential election data. Their study found that neither personal situation nor retrospective collective evaluations (whether the overall economy had gotten better or worse in the past year) were related to turnout.…”

Section: Previous Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Voting in South Korea: Pocketbook or Sociotropic?

Lee¹,

Glasure²

2012

Japanese Journal of Political Science

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Using 2003 Asian Barometer Survey study data, this paper examines the economic voting model in the 2002 presidential election in South Korea. The core emphasis of the paper is on an investigation of the relative effects of different dimensions/scopes of economic evaluations on voting behavior, namely whether one form of assessment (e.g., pocketbook vs. sociotropic) can have similar consequences for electoral participation as others. The findings indicate that the overall economy is salient for Koreans to shape their political choices. In other words, voting behavior in Korea depends on how she or he thinks the national economy has been for the past five years. Also found is that voters' perceptions of their own personal financial situations did not matter much as a predictor of voter choice.

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Retrospective and prospective voting in a one-party- dominant democracy: Taiwan’s 1996 presidential election

Cited by 12 publications

References 9 publications

Retrospective pledge voting: A comparative study of the electoral consequences of government parties’ pledge fulfilment

Retrospective pledge voting: A comparative study of the electoral consequences of government parties’ pledge fulfilment

Does candidates' advertising spending help winning?

Economic Voting in South Korea: Pocketbook or Sociotropic?

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