Retrospective modelling of air pollution due to the operation of scientific stations in Antarctica: an experience of reanalysis

Abstract

This article is devoted to the assessment of trends of atmospheric air pollution and atmospheric impacts on the environment in the oases of the Thala Hills, Enderby Land, East Antarctica. Estimates of annual emissions of SO2, nitrogen oxides (NO x ), inhalable particulate matter with a diameter of ≤ 10 μm (PM10) and CO and their dynamics over 56 years of Thala Hills exploration are given, as well as levels of surface air concentrations of SO2, NO x , PM10 and PM10 atmospheric depositions using air dispersion modelling. It is shown, in particular, that average annual emissions of NO x , PM10 and CO peaked in the early 1990s and have decreased 30.9 times by now. Sulphur dioxide emissions were highest in the late 1960s–late 1970s and decreased 270 times since then. Results of comparisons of modelled air concentrations and depositions with the available data on the measurement of surface air pollutant concentrations and atmospheric depositions are presented. Sources of uncertainties in the estimates of emissions, ground-level concentrations and depositions are described. Proposed approaches can be used to assess the cumulative impacts of ongoing and planned activities on atmospheric air and on other components of the environment through assessing the atmospheric air in the Antarctic Treaty area.