Return and volatility spillover between India, UK, USA and European stock markets: The Brexit impact

Abstract

The 2016 Brexit referendum created potential turmoil in financial markets. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the Brexit referendum on the return and volatility spillover between the EU, the UK, and the USA stock markets and the Indian stock market during the pre- and post-Brexit referendum period. The VAR and bivariate GARCH BEKK models were employed. The study results suggest that before the Brexit referendum, Indian stock market returns made no significant return spillover on the other markets. On the contrary, following the referendum, Indian stock returns significantly spilled over to France, Germany, the UK, and the USA stock market returns. The study results also identified a substantial increase in the bidirectional volatility spillover between India-France, India-UK, and India-USA during the post-Brexit referendum period. Therefore, the investors’ opportunity to invest simultaneously in India, UK, EU, and US stock markets for portfolio diversification is limited. India was affected mainly by its own past shocks before the Brexit referendum. However, after the Brexit referendum, Indian markets are getting more and more integrated with other markets. In order to reap the diversification benefits, a prudent investment strategy will need to be developed in the future, especially during times of economic and political uncertainty and market crisis.

From Wells to Wallets: Tracing Volatility Spillover from Crude Oil to South Asian Stock Markets

“…The relationship among stock and oil markets is important because of its vibrant nature. The financial crisis of 2008, the oil price downfall in 2014, the Brexit referendum in 2016, the European Debt crisis, COVID-19, and the Paris Climate Agreements are considered the main reasons that have affected oil prices in the previous twenty years (Bachmann et al, 2013;Caggiano et al, 2017;Nagarakatte & Natchimuthu, 2022). The war in Ukraine will affect developing nations through the different trade and investment channels, which include the commodity prices of food and energy, supply chains, logistic networks, and foreign direct investment (Ruta, 2022).…”