Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate

Karremann, Melanie K.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Reyers, Mark; Klawa, Matthias

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124016

Cited by 37 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Given the large sampling uncertainty, such potential changes may not be detectable in single 30-yr climate model simulations (Economou et al, 2015). Still, Karremann et al (2014) has recently provided evidence based on a large ensemble of simulations with a single global circulation model that cumulative annual losses associated with extratropical cyclones may increase over most of Europe in future decades due to a combination of changes in potential loss magnitude and changes in storm clustering.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Robustness of serial clustering of extratropical cyclones to the choice of tracking method

Pinto

Ulbrich

Economou

et al. 2016

Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography

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A B S T R A C T Cyclone clusters are a frequent synoptic feature in the Euro-Atlantic area. Recent studies have shown that serial clustering of cyclones generally occurs on both flanks and downstream regions of the North Atlantic storm track, while cyclones tend to occur more regulary on the western side of the North Atlantic basin near Newfoundland. This study explores the sensitivity of serial clustering to the choice of cyclone tracking method using cyclone track data from 15 methods derived from ERA-Interim data (1979Á2010). Clustering is estimated by the dispersion (ratio of variance to mean) of winter [December Á February (DJF)] cyclone passages near each grid point over the Euro-Atlantic area. The mean number of cyclone counts and their variance are compared between methods, revealing considerable differences, particularly for the latter. Results show that all different tracking methods qualitatively capture similar large-scale spatial patterns of underdispersion and overdispersion over the study region. The quantitative differences can primarily be attributed to the differences in the variance of cyclone counts between the methods. Nevertheless, overdispersion is statistically significant for almost all methods over parts of the eastern North Atlantic and Western Europe, and is therefore considered as a robust feature. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on cyclone clustering displays a similar pattern for all tracking methods, with one maximum near Iceland and another between the Azores and Iberia. The differences in variance between methods are not related with different sensitivities to the NAO, which can account to over 50% of the clustering in some regions. We conclude that the general features of underdispersion and overdispersion of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Western Europe are robust to the choice of tracking method. The same is true for the influence of the NAO on cyclone dispersion.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Robustness of serial clustering of extratropical cyclones to the choice of tracking method

Pinto

Ulbrich

Economou

et al. 2016

Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography

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“…Changes in cyclone frequency are often expressed as changes in cyclone return period [26][27][28][29][30].…”

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confidence: 99%

Review on the Projections of Future Storminess over the North Atlantic European Region

et al. 2016

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This is an overview of the results from previously published climate modeling studies reporting on projected aspects of future storminess over the North Atlantic European region (NAER) in the period 2020-2190. Changes in storminess are summarized for seven subregions in the study area and rated by a categorical evaluation scheme that takes into account emission scenarios and modeling complexity in the reviewed studies. Although many of the reviewed studies reported an increase in the intensity of high-impact wind speed and extreme cyclone frequency in the second half of the 21st century, the projections of aspects of future storminess over the NAER differed regionally. There is broad consensus that the frequency and intensity of storms, cyclones, and high-impact wind speed will increase over Central and Western Europe, and these changes will probably have the potential to produce more damage. In contrast, future extratropical storminess over Southern Europe is very likely to decrease. For Northern and Eastern Europe the results of the evaluation are inconclusive, because there is an indication of increasing as well as decreasing development of the evaluated aspects of future storminess. Concerning the storm track, we found indications of a likely north-and eastward shift in most assessed studies. Results from three studies suggest a northeastward shift of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

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“…Return levels will be used in this study to allow intercomparison of a wide variety of storm data sets. Karremann et al (2014b) extend results from Germany to many other countries impacted by wind storms to provide a fuller picture of clustering as a function of local storm severity in Europe. However, the true clustering climate is obscured by large uncertainties due to sampling errors, as illustrated by the 90 % bootstrap confidence interval (CI) in Fig.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 65%

The observed clustering of damaging extratropical cyclones in Europe

Cusack

2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The clustering of severe European windstorms on annual timescales has substantial impacts on the (re-)insurance industry. Our knowledge of the risk is limited by large uncertainties in estimates of clustering from typical historical storm data sets covering the past few decades. Eight storm data sets are gathered for analysis in this study in order to reduce these uncertainties. Six of the data sets contain more than 100 years of severe storm information to reduce sampling errors, and observational errors are reduced by the diversity of information sources and analysis methods between storm data sets. All storm severity measures used in this study reflect damage, to suit (re-)insurance applications.The shortest storm data set of 42 years provides indications of stronger clustering with severity, particularly for regions off the main storm track in central Europe and France. However, clustering estimates have very large sampling and observational errors, exemplified by large changes in estimates in central Europe upon removal of one stormy season, 1989/1990. The extended storm records place 1989/1990 into a much longer historical context to produce more robust estimates of clustering. All the extended storm data sets show increased clustering between more severe storms from return periods (RPs) of 0.5 years to the longest measured RPs of about 20 years. Further, they contain signs of stronger clustering off the main storm track, and weaker clustering for smaller-sized areas, though these signals are more uncertain as they are drawn from smaller data samples. These new ultra-long storm data sets provide new information on clustering to improve our management of this risk.

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Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate

Cited by 37 publications

References 24 publications

Robustness of serial clustering of extratropical cyclones to the choice of tracking method

Robustness of serial clustering of extratropical cyclones to the choice of tracking method

Review on the Projections of Future Storminess over the North Atlantic European Region

The observed clustering of damaging extratropical cyclones in Europe

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