Revealing the long-term trend of the global-scale Ginkgo biloba distribution and the impact of future climate change based on the ensemble modeling

Wang, Lukun; Liu, Shiyuan; Liu, Jing; Wei, Haiyan; Fang, Yaqin; Wang, Daju; Chen, Ruidun; Gu, Wei

doi:10.1007/s10531-023-02593-z

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 87 publications

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“…The combined predictions of the BIOCLIM and DOMAIN models paint a stark picture of LOGT's future in China under a doubled CO 2 scenario. Our findings resonate with previous studies underscoring Ginkgo's limited tolerance to climatic fluctuations (Feng et al., 2023 ; Wang et al., 2023 ). In particular, the projected decrease in excellent suitable habitats signifies a significant threat to the long‐term survival of the living fossils.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

“…Previous studies employing different modeling approaches offer insights into the potential mode and magnitude of possible habitat changes. However, the area of Ginkgo's suitable habitats showed contrasting results in various studies: increasing (Zhang et al., 2023 ) or decreasing (Feng et al., 2023 ; Guo et al., 2019 ; Wang et al., 2023 ). The anomaly may be related to the selection of models and specific research objects (Araújo & Guisan, 2006 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Distribution pattern of large old Ginkgo biloba in China under climate change scenarios

Xie,

Liu,

Wang

et al. 2024

Ecology and Evolution

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Large old Ginkgo biloba trees (LOGTs), with profound ecological and cultural significance in China, face increasing threats from climate change and human activities. We employed the BIOCLIM and DOMAIN species distribution models to predict their spatial patterns under the present climate and doubled‐CO2 climate change scenario in 2100. We collected 604 validated LOGT occurrence records and data on 19 bioclimate factors for the analysis. Our study yielded a LOGT geographic distribution pattern covering a wide latitudinal belt extending from south subtropical to temperate zones in central and eastern China, concentrating in low elevations and coastal regions. The principal component analysis identified the dominant bioclimatic factors shaping their distribution, namely annual precipitation and low winter temperatures. BIOCLIM and DOMAIN generated predicted suitable habitats that match the present distribution range well. However, under the future climate scenario, the models indicated habitat retentions mainly in the core distribution areas and habitat losses mainly in the southern edge of the present range and scattered pockets elsewhere. Some retained habitats, including excellent ones, will suffer from fragmentation. The predicted new habitats may permit some range expansion and migration but are beset by small patch size and large interpatch distance, bringing fragmentation and gene flow restrictions. The anticipated projected range decline highlights considerable threats climate change poses to the long‐term survival of the precious natural‐cum‐cultural resource. Understanding the distribution patterns and underlying drivers and distillation of practical conservation measures can foster sustainable management vis‐a‐vis the looming global change.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distribution pattern of large old Ginkgo biloba in China under climate change scenarios

Xie,

Liu,

Wang

et al. 2024

Ecology and Evolution

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“…They are then projected onto the landscape to reflect the preference of species for habitats in the form of probabilities [ 77 , 78 ]. In recent years, SDMs have been widely used for the species response to climate change in the context of global change [ 51 ]; for potential range prediction of invasive species [ 52 ]; for determining the effects of regional climate change on species richness and community stability [ 79 ]; for range delineation of protected areas for endangered and rare species; and for determining the impact of human activities on endangered species [ 80 ]. In the modeling process for different purposes, species ecological niche characteristics, and modeling database, researchers need to choose different modeling algorithms.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the modeling process for different purposes, species ecological niche characteristics, and modeling database, researchers need to choose different modeling algorithms. In recent years, EM prediction using multiple model information has become a trend in species distribution studies to reduce model uncertainty and increase modeling accuracy [ 80 , 81 ]. Therefore, it is reasonable to use EM in this study.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Invasive Trends of Spartina alterniflora in the Southeastern Coast of China and Potential Distributional Impacts on Mangrove Forests

Zheng

Wei

Chen

et al. 2023

Plants

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Mangrove forests are one of the most productive and seriously threatened ecosystems in the world. The widespread invasion of Spartina alterniflora has seriously imperiled the security of mangroves as well as coastal mudflat ecosystems. Based on a model evaluation index, we selected RF, GBM, and GLM as a predictive model for building a high-precision ensemble model. We used the species occurrence records combined with bioclimate, sea–land topography, and marine environmental factors to predict the potentially suitable habitats of mangrove forests and the potentially suitable invasive habitats of S. alterniflora in the southeastern coast of China. We then applied the invasion risk index (IRI) to assess the risk that S. alterniflora would invade mangrove forests. The results show that the suitable habitats for mangrove forests are mainly distributed along the coastal provinces of Guangdong, Hainan, and the eastern coast of Guangxi. The suitable invasive habitats for S. alterniflora are mainly distributed along the coast of Zhejiang, Fujian, and relatively less in the southern provinces. The high-risk areas for S. alterniflora invasion of mangrove forests are concentrated in Zhejiang and Fujian. Bioclimate variables are the most important variables affecting the survival and distribution of mangrove forests and S. alterniflora. Among them, temperature is the most important environmental variable determining the large-scale distribution of mangrove forests. Meanwhile, S. alterniflora is more sensitive to precipitation than temperature. Our results can provide scientific insights and references for mangrove forest conservation and control of S. alterniflora.

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Predicting the potential distribution of Taxus cuspidata in northeastern China based on the ensemble model

Chang,

Huang,

Chen

et al. 2024

Ecosphere

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Climate change is poised to exert a significant impact on species distribution in the future, and Taxus cuspidata as an endangered species is no exception. Predicting the potential distribution of T. cuspidata is essential for decision‐makers to develop conservation policies and explicitly implement conservation measures. In this study, a combined model was employed to predict potentially suitable habitats for T. cuspidata based on extant data of T. cuspidata distributions in northeastern China. Our findings suggest that mean diurnal range (bio2) and isothermality (bio3) were identified as dominant factors influencing T. cuspidata distribution. Under future climate scenarios, suitable habitat areas increased only in the SSP126 scenario in the 2070s, declining in all other scenarios. In all climate scenarios, the centroid of suitable habitats ultimately shows a trend in northward movement. Decreases in suitable habitat predominantly occurred in Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture, Baishan city, and Tonghua city. Overall, this study highlights a projected habitat reduction due to climate change. Recommendations entail the strategic establishment of nature reserves and the implementation of initiatives aimed at population replenishment.

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Revealing the long-term trend of the global-scale Ginkgo biloba distribution and the impact of future climate change based on the ensemble modeling

Cited by 8 publications

References 87 publications

Distribution pattern of large old Ginkgo biloba in China under climate change scenarios

Distribution pattern of large old Ginkgo biloba in China under climate change scenarios

Invasive Trends of Spartina alterniflora in the Southeastern Coast of China and Potential Distributional Impacts on Mangrove Forests

Predicting the potential distribution of Taxus cuspidata in northeastern China based on the ensemble model

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