Reveals of a Shifting Climate: A Regional Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Trends at Mymensingh Division in Bangladesh (1950-2020)

Abstract

Professional resource allocation and planning in response to climate change in developing regions such as the Mymensingh Division of Bangladesh requires comprehension of trends in temperature and precipitation over long periods of forecast. This is the reason why this study examines the temperature and precipitation from the years 1950 to 2020 in order to provide a reasonable view of local climatic conditions and facilitate the policymaking process. By using climactic research unit (CRU) TS data sets in creation of raster layers using ArcGIS tools we undertook data processing research which involved statistical analysis methods. Mann-Kendall test has generated a very encouraging result as it has found relative increase in annual precipitation, averaging about 2760.52 mm and oscillating between 1752 mm and 4338 mm. Kendall’s tau correlation τ = 0.156, p-value = 0.024, shows a possible change over a period of time. Slope of sen demonstrated that precipitation regime has increase by 1.9 mm annually. The analyses of autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation confirmed that the precipitation data upside and trends are clearly delineated. Progressive warming trend as regards the average annual temperature was observed, as the years went by, the average annual temperature increased from 24.77 0 c to 25.170c, more so in recent years where there have been high degree of warming. This study highlights the need for ongoing climate and the enhancement of global warming policies to prevent worsening situations.