Survival functions from smoking cessation interventions are described by a three-state Markov model. On quitting, smokers transit through a state of withdrawal characterized by a high rate of relapse, and then into a more secure state of long-term abstinence. The Markov model embodies the dynamic nature of the cessation/ relapse process; it permits stronger inference to long-term abstinence rates, provides measures of treatment efficacy, describes the outcomes of new quit attempts, and suggests mechanisms for the survival process.quitting tobacco | survival model | nicotine | monoamine oxidase S cientists construct and validate maps between events or processes and their descriptions with words, graphs, or equations. Those maps are most secure when close to the object of study, such as mechanics is to the movement of massive bodies and chemistry is to its constituents. However, sometimes there is an advantage to working at more molar or molecular levels-statistical mechanics are one level up, and quantum chemistry is one level down. The most promising level of attack is typically where the greatest order is found, which can serve as a stable fulcrum for leverage above or below. In this paper, an epidemiological model is applied to tobacco addiction, which allows inferences both to behavioral processes and underlying physiological dysfunction.Tobacco causes ∼440,000 premature deaths and $157 billion in health-related economic losses annually in the United States (1). The habit is tenacious, with around 90% of unassisted quitters smoking again within 1 y and the best interventions seldom decreasing that by more than 15% (2). Most attempts fail within a few weeks, leaving most trials underpowered for evaluating interventions beyond 3 mo. Characterization of the relapse process would permit information from the early epochs to improve inferences concerning long-term abstinence. Noting that many survival functions decrease at a similar rate in the right tail, Piasecki et al. (3) called for a dynamic model of abstinence that would explain such uniformity. The present paper answers that call with a simple Markov model of the transitions between stages of the quitting process.