Review article: Natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale

Abstract

Abstract. Since 1990, natural hazards have led to over 1.6 million fatalities globally, and economic losses are estimated at an average of around USD 260–310 billion per year. The scientific and policy communities recognise the need to reduce these risks. As a result, the last decade has seen a rapid development of global models for assessing risk from natural hazards at the global scale. In this paper, we review the scientific literature on natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale, and we specifically examine whether and how they have examined future projections of hazard, exposure, and/or vulnerability. In doing so, we examine similarities and differences between the approaches taken across the different hazards, and we identify potential ways in which different hazard communities can learn from each other. For example, there are a number of global risk studies focusing on hydrological, climatological, and meteorological hazards that have included future projections and disaster risk reduction measures (in the case of floods), whereas fewer exist in the peer-reviewed literature for global studies related to geological hazards. On the other hand, studies of earthquake and tsunami risk are now using stochastic modelling approaches to allow for a fully probabilistic assessment of risk, which could benefit the modelling of risk from other hazards. Finally, we discuss opportunities for learning from methods and approaches being developed and applied to assess natural hazard risks at more continental or regional scales. Through this paper, we hope to encourage further dialogue on knowledge sharing between disciplines and communities working on different hazards and risk and at different spatial scales.

Flood Risk Analysis and Assessment, Applications and Uncertainties: A Bibliometric Review

“…This is not related to the absence of flood events, but to the limited number of scientific institutions and data sources (only 261 of the 7454 FRA records in the WoS databases). The lack of appropriate infrastructures and data make development of FRA difficult in African countries, beyond the inclusion of this continent in global risk studies, such as those cited in Ward et al [14]. The same causes are behind the absence of FRA manuscripts in high impact journals.…”

“…Apart from the four emerging fields mentioned above, the studies carried out on a global scale (specifically reviewed by Ward et al [14]) deserve individual mention. These analyses focus mainly on the past decade, sharing some similarities with the majority of meso-or micro-scale studies (an increase in the spatial resolution of the results obtained in recent studies; predominance of studies that focus on flood hazard analysis; prevalence of studies evaluating direct flood damages; importance and number of studies focused on coastal floods; etc.).…”

“…There are several published papers and chapters of books that present overall reviews of FRA [2][3][4][5][6][7]. Thematic reviews have also been published of different FRA approaches, regarding: methodological and spatial scale issues [8][9][10]; uncertainty [11,12]; mapping [13]; global scale risk analyses and assessments [14] and economic damage [15], among others.…”

“…Most of them were published recently (2005-2015), and despite this, they had a high number of citations in a short time. All of them had two or more authors (2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)(15)(16)(17), with a mean of 5.2 authors per paper. This is because some of the selected items were reviews and syntheses made by huge groups of collaborators and international consortia.…”

Are the socioeconomic impacts associated with tropical cyclones in Mexico exacerbated by local vulnerability and ENSO conditions?

“…Natural hazards are defined as phenomena that may cause loss of life, health impacts, property damage, and socioeconomic disruption (Ward, 2020). Some examples of hydrometeorological hazards produced by TCs are flash floods, heavy rainfall, intense winds, and coastal storm surges.…”