Review article: Observations for high-impact weather and their use in verification

Marsigli, Chiara; Ebert, Elizabeth E.; Ashrit, Raghavendra; Casati, Barbara; Chen, Jing; Coelho, Caio A. S.; Dorninger, Manfred; Gilleland, Eric; Haiden, Thomas; Landman, Stephanie; Mittermaier, Marion

doi:10.5194/nhess-21-1297-2021

Cited by 15 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…In order to further stress that point, this subsection focuses on two selected case studies (12 April 2004 and 19 May 2018), both ascribed to the intense rainfall cluster for MAM. These days were chosen because they correspond to high‐impact weather events (e.g., Marsigli et al, 2021), which were identified as primarily important by the World Meteorological Organization due to their increasing intensity and frequency under climate change. In order to quantify to which extent they differ from the average atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with intense rainfall days in MAM, Figure S5 shows the distance between the anomalous atmospheric pattern of each day and the MAM cluster centroid for the 700 and 200 hPa fields, on the x‐axis and y‐axis, respectively.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric drivers of rainfall events in the Republic of Djibouti

Waberi,

Camberlin,

Pohl

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The Republic of Djibouti is a small country in an arid context coupled with a high variability of rainfall that generates flash floods causing severe damage to the population and infrastructure. The mechanisms controlling extreme rainfall events in this part of the Horn of Africa remain poorly understood. In this study, we document the atmospheric circulation patterns associated with such events. To that end, we use rain‐gauge data (a network of 36 stations on the period 2013–2020), satellite‐based rainfall estimates (CHIRPS, IMERG, MSWEP and RFE) and atmospheric reanalyses (ERA5), all at the daily timescale, over their common period 2001–2020. A multivariate Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering of rainy days in Djibouti (≥10% of grid‐points exceeding 1 mm·day−1, according to all four satellite products) reveal four clusters, which differentiate from each other by the intensity and spatial extent of rainfall. These clusters show a nonhomogeneous seasonal distribution, occurring mainly in the March–April–May (MAM) and July–August–September (JAS) seasons, and more rarely in October–November–December (OND). The atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the clusters are quite similar and highly season‐dependent. In MAM most clusters display an anomalous trough over the Red Sea, from 700 to 200 hPa. In JAS, an anomalous low over the southern Red Sea drives a thicker than normal monsoon flow at 700 hPa, while upper northerlies prevail at 200 hPa. In OND, most rainy events result from moisture advection from the Western Indian Ocean, favoured by positive phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole. Some highly unusual atmospheric circulation patterns (e.g., associated with tropical cyclones) can also result in intense rainfall events in Djibouti. These findings provide new insights on the physical causes of extreme events in the Horn of Africa, with applications to improved early warning and skill evaluation of climate models for climate change projections.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric drivers of rainfall events in the Republic of Djibouti

Waberi,

Camberlin,

Pohl

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Indeed, these mismatches fall into the double‐penalty class of occurrences, for which it is challenging to match the observations with absolute precision. The cause is the intrinsic chaotic behaviour controlling deep moist convection, which is responsible for the low predictability of the exact localization of the associated convective processes, justifying the use of fuzzy verification techniques for quantifying the performance of their simulations (Marsigli et al ., 2021). This issue could be relevant in downstream modelling applications that require high spatial precision, such as in hydrological modelling (e.g.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

SPHERA, a new convection‐permitting regional reanalysis over Italy: Improving the description of heavy rainfall

Giordani

Cerenzia

Paccagnella

et al. 2023

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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Regional reanalyses allow us to better describe weather patterns related to rapidly evolving high‐impact events thanks to substantially finer detailing than global datasets. However, most regional datasets still do not permit the explicit representation of deep convection. SPHERA (High rEsolution ReAnalysis over Italy) is a new high‐resolution convection‐permitting reanalysis centred over Italy. It covers 26 years (1995–2020), is based on the non‐hydrostatic limited‐area model COSMO, and is produced by dynamically downscaling the global reanalysis ERA5. A nudging data assimilation scheme steers the model toward observations. The fine horizontal grid spacing of 2.2 km allows us to switch off deep‐convection parametrization. This study reports the added value of SPHERA over ERA5 in representing rainfall over Italy, particularly for severe precipitation, using rain‐gauge observations during 2003–2017 as reference. Concerning the 95th percentile of spatial rainfall distributions, ERA5 presents dry estimates with biases reaching −12 mm·day−1 over mountainous regions. At the same time, the enhanced locally driven effects of SPHERA produce seasonal biases ranging from wet in JJA (up to +12 mm·day−1) to dry in DJF (down to −9 mm·day−1). For daily maximum rates, the regional reanalysis shows better skill in detecting occurred events (with hit rates higher than ERA5 by roughly 0.4 points in the range of 15–80 mm·day−1) and frequency biases closer to 0 at all intensities when coming to daily averages. Similarly, for hourly maximum accumulations, improved adherence to observations is detected for SPHERA at all intensities, conversely to the underprediction of the global driver (with frequency biases <1 starting from 1.5 mm·hr−1). Additionally, the analyses of two specific events reveal the enhancements of SPHERA in simulating extreme precipitation, with a maximum intensity underestimation on the order of 24% versus the 73% detected for ERA5. Further improvements include the spatial detailing, timing, and temporal evolution of the events.

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“…But notably in severe weather, human-made forecasts were described to have a better sense of the weather situation. While benefits and flaws of meteorological models are widely discussed in meteorology (see Marsigli et al, 2021; Murphy, 1993), the role of forecasters (especially, forecasters’ bodies) has not been subject to increased scrutiny by social or cultural studies. Only two studies by sociologists Fine (2007) and Daipha (2015b) conceptualise meteorologists’ working practices ethnographically.…”

Section: Ethnographies Of Weather-sensingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensing weather and climate: Phenomenological and ethnographic approaches

Hepach

Lüder

2023

Environment and Planning F

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In light of the increasing tendency to view extreme weather events as experiences of climate change, we revisit how weather and climate are measured and experienced, contributing to an ongoing dialogue on the atmospheric between phenomenology, media studies and geography. We make use of and complicate the concept of sensing to make sense of the heterogeneous modes of experiencing and measuring weather. First, we detail the history and phenomenology of weather between experience and measurement. Providing evidence for our theoretical account, we go through two ethnographic examples of weather-sensing, looking at the work of meteorologists and a weather-machine. From weather-sensing, we extrapolate the possibility of climate-sensing to aid in the comprehension of climate change. Sensing, we conclude, promises to reconnect weather and climate, the measured and experienced, the proximate and remote, the bodily and abstract.

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Review article: Observations for high-impact weather and their use in verification

Cited by 15 publications

References 45 publications

Atmospheric drivers of rainfall events in the Republic of Djibouti

Atmospheric drivers of rainfall events in the Republic of Djibouti

SPHERA, a new convection‐permitting regional reanalysis over Italy: Improving the description of heavy rainfall

Sensing weather and climate: Phenomenological and ethnographic approaches

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