Review of scenario selection and downscaling methods for the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology in the United States pacific northwest

Salathé, Eric P.; Mote, Philip W.; Wiley, Matthew W.

doi:10.1002/joc.1540

Cited by 180 publications

(128 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…With respect to future climate change, Pan et al (2004) show a possible 4% increase in incoming solar radiation for the Portland area for summer 2040 (JJA) and 4% decrease for Phoenix, mainly as a function of monsoon changes in July and August. In more recent downscaling and modelling efforts, Salathe et al (2007) suggest Portland summer precipitation may decline slightly, which is consistent with the direction of change indicated by Pan et al (2004) for incoming solar radiation. Bresson and Laprise (2011) explicitly produce scenarios of the water budget by winter and summer seasons (DJF and JJA) in their use of the Canadian Regional Climate Model for North America in which regional ET is mapped for changes from 1961-1990 to 2041-2071.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 72%

“…Bresson and Laprise (2011) explicitly produce scenarios of the water budget by winter and summer seasons (DJF and JJA) in their use of the Canadian Regional Climate Model for North America in which regional ET is mapped for changes from 1961-1990 to 2041-2071. Interpolating for the Pacific Northwest near Portland and for the Southwest United States near Phoenix from their Figure 13 (showing JJA projected differences), changes consistent with Pan et al (2004) and Salathe et al (2007) interpretations are noted with very little ET increases for Portland and some decreases in ET for summer in Phoenix (again for the combined JJA period). Thus, it is possible that by 2040, our minimum estimates for solar radiation may be appropriate for Phoenix and maximum estimates appropriate for Portland as a scenario to consider from the results of Table VI. Local effects of pollution on solar radiation in the urban area compared with rural environments may also be significant in scenario constructs.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 59%

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Land cover, climate, and the summer surface energy balance in Phoenix, AZ, and Portland, OR

Middel

Brazel

Gober

et al. 2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Changes in land use and land cover alter the local energy balance and contribute to distinct urban climates. This paper presents a local-scale above-canopy study of intra-urban land cover mixes in two cities to analyse the relative effects of surface morphology and local climate on the surface energy balance (SEB). The study is conducted for urban areas in Phoenix, Arizona, and Portland, Oregon, cities with distinct climates but similarly warm and dry summers. A Local-Scale Urban Meteorological Parameterization Scheme (LUMPS) is used to analyse the relative contributions of local weather extremes and land cover variations on the urban energy balance. The partitioning of net all-wave radiation into turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes as well as heat storage is investigated for a typical dry summer month and two extreme weather scenarios in the two cities. Results of sensitivity analyses show that incoming solar radiation is an important driver of the SEB in LUMPS and should be considered in the generation of climate scenarios. The relationship between individual land cover fractions and SEB fluxes is not clear because of interrelated effects of surface characteristics in the land cover mix. Daytime Bowen ratios vary inversely with vegetation fraction between and within cities for all weather scenarios. Impervious surface cover is positively correlated to the available energy that is partitioned into sensible heat. Cumulative evapotranspiration (ET) is similar for average weather conditions across medium wet sites in Phoenix and Portland but varies more in Portland than in Phoenix under extreme weather conditions. Results suggest that land cover manipulation could offset influences of weather extremes on ET in Portland to a certain degree but not in Phoenix. These findings highlight the importance of spatial and climatic context in the urban design process to mitigate the effects of urbanization.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 72%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 59%

Land cover, climate, and the summer surface energy balance in Phoenix, AZ, and Portland, OR

Middel

Brazel

Gober

et al. 2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…There is evidence to suggest that it is preferable to apply the native GCM-predicted climate anomalies to observed data in order to construct climate scenarios rather than derive them directly from the regional climate model simulations or by statistical downscaling (e.g. Arnell et al, 2003;Salathé et al, 2007) The comparison of future climatic conditions from 13 GCMs provides several important observations. First, there is significant variation in future conditions across the different models, even though all models were forced with the same emissions scenarios.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on snow water availability in the Euphrates-Tigris basin

Özdoğan

2011

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This study investigates the effects of projected climate change on snow water availability in the EuphratesTigris basin using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro scale hydrologic model and a set of regional climatechange outputs from 13 global circulation models (GCMs) forced with two greenhouse gas emission scenarios for two time periods in the 21st century (2050 and 2090). The hydrologic model produces a reasonable simulation of seasonal and spatial variation in snow cover and associated snow water equivalent (SWE) in the mountainous areas of the basin, although its performance is poorer at marginal snow cover sites. While there is great variation across GCM outputs influencing snow water availability, the majority of models and scenarios suggest a significant decline (between 10 and 60 percent) in available snow water, particularly under the high-impact A2 climate change scenario and later in the 21st century. The changes in SWE are more stable when multimodel ensemble GCM outputs are used to minimize intermodel variability, suggesting a consistent and significant decrease in snow-covered areas and associated water availability in the headwaters of the Euphrates-Tigris basin. Detailed analysis of future climatic conditions point to the combined effects of reduced precipitation and increased temperatures as primary drivers of reduced snowpack. Results also indicate a more rapid decline in snow cover in the lower elevation zones than the higher areas in a changing climate but these findings also contain a larger uncertainty. The simulated changes in snow water availability have important implications for the future of water resources and associated hydropower generation and land-use management and planning in a region already ripe for interstate water conflict. While the changes in the frequency and intensity of snowbearing circulation systems or the interannual variability reCorrespondence to: M.Özdogan (ozdogan@wisc.edu) lated to climate were not considered, the simulated changes in snow water availability presented here are likely to be indicative of climate change impacts on the water resources of the Euphrates-Tigris basin.

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“…We address both the magnitudes of effects and the temporal scales at which they operate because when the magnitude and direction of two different changes are equal, those that occur over shorter periods will appear more sudden and be more difficult to anticipate. We use both composite climate model output and scenarios based on individual climate models, statistically downscaled to 1/16 th degree resolution (Salathé et al 2007;Salathé 2009, this report, Elsner et al 2009, this report), for future projections.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA

et al. 2010

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C limatic change is likely to affect Pacific Northwest (PNW) forests in several important ways. In this paper, we address the role of climate in four forest ecosystem processes and project the effects of future climatic change on these processes. First, we analyze how climate affects Douglas-fir growth across the region to understand potential changes in future growth. In areas where Douglas-fir is not water-limited, future growth will continue to vary with interannual climate variability, but in places where Douglas-fir is water-limited, growth is likely to decline due to projected increase in summer potential evapotranspiration. Second, we use existing analyses of climatic controls on future potential tree species ranges to highlight areas where species turnover may be greatest. By the mid 21 st century, some areas of the interior Columbia Basin and eastern Cascades are likely to have climates poorly suited to pine species that are susceptible to mountain pine beetle, and if these pines are climatically stressed, they may be more vulnerable to pine beetle attack. Climatic suitability for Douglas-fir is also likely to change, with substantial decreases in climatically suitable area in the Puget Trough and the Okanogan Highlands. Third, using regression approaches, we examine the relationships between climate and the area burned by fire in the PNW and in eight Washington ecosystems and project future area burned in response to changing climate. Area burned is significantly related to both temperature and precipitation in summer, but more physiologically relevant variables, such as water balance deficit, perform as well or better in models. Regional area burned is likely to double or even triple by the end of the 2040s, although Washington ecosystems have different sensitivities to climate and thus different responses to climatic change. Fourth, we evaluate the influence of climatic change on mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks by quantifying both host-tree vulnerability and pine beetle adaptive seasonality. Host-tree vulnerability is closely related to vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and future projections support the hypothesis that summer VPD will increase over a significant portion of the range of host tree species. Due to the increased host 255vulnerability, MPB populations are expected to become more viable at higher elevations leading to increased incidence of MPB outbreaks. The increased rates of disturbance by fire and mountain pine beetle are likely to be more significant agents of changes in forest structure and composition in the 21st century than species turnover or declines in productivity. This suggests that understanding future disturbance regimes is critical for successful adaptation to climate change.

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Review of scenario selection and downscaling methods for the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology in the United States pacific northwest

Cited by 180 publications

References 17 publications

Land cover, climate, and the summer surface energy balance in Phoenix, AZ, and Portland, OR

Land cover, climate, and the summer surface energy balance in Phoenix, AZ, and Portland, OR

Climate change impacts on snow water availability in the Euphrates-Tigris basin

Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA

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