Review of the formulation of present‐generation stratospheric chemistry‐climate models and associated external forcings

Morgenstern, Olaf; Giorgetta, Marco; Shibata, Kiyotaka; Eyring, Veronika; Waugh, Darryn W.; Shepherd, Theodore G.; Akiyoshi, Hideharu; Austin, J.; Baumgaertner, A. J. G.; Bekki, Slimane; Braesicke, Peter; Brühl, Christoph; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Cugnet, David; Dameris, Martin; Dhomse, Sandip; Frith, S. M.; Garny, Hella; Gettelman, Andrew; Hardiman, Steven C.; Hegglin, Michaela I.; Jöckel, Patrick; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Lamarque, J. F.; Mancini, E.; Manzini, Elisa; Marchand, Marion; Michou, Martine; Nakamura, Tetsu; Nielsen, J. E.; Olivié, Dirk; Pitari, Giovanni; Plummer, David A.; Rozanov, Eugene; Scinocca, John; Smale, Dan; Teyssèdre, H.; Toohey, Matthew; Tian, Wenshou; Yamashita, Yousuke

doi:10.1029/2009jd013728

Cited by 169 publications

(214 citation statements)

References 140 publications

(171 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

210

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The LMDz-REPROBUS model simulations of stratospheric ozone used to build the climatologies for the IPSL-CM5 for the 1850-2006 period have been evaluated against other chemistry-climate models and a wide range of observations (Jourdain et al 2008;Austin et al 2010a, b;Gettelman et al 2009a, b;Hegglin et al 2010;Morgenstern et al 2010). Figure 5 shows a comparison between the model-calculated and the HALOE (Halogen Occultation Experiment) observation-based annual zonal mean distributions.…”

Section: Stratospheric Ozonementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The evolution of ODSs in REF2 is based on the scenario A1 from WMO (2007), but slightly modified to account for the earlier phase out of HCFCs agreed upon at the 2007 Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol (Morgenstern et al 2010). Regarding GHGs, REF2 follows the SRES A1B scenario (IPCC 2001) and is close to the RCP6.0 scenario.…”

Section: Lmdz-reprobus Model and Set-upmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The temporal evolution of the Ozone-Depleting Substances (ODSs) and GHGs mixing ratios were derived from observations for the 1961-2006 period, and then according to one ODS scenario and two different GHG scenarios from the CCMVal project for the 2007-2100 period: REF2 and SCN-B2c (Morgenstern et al 2010, Eyring et al 2010b. The evolution of ODSs in REF2 is based on the scenario A1 from WMO (2007), but slightly modified to account for the earlier phase out of HCFCs agreed upon at the 2007 Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol (Morgenstern et al 2010).…”

Section: Lmdz-reprobus Model and Set-upmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Aerosol and ozone changes as forcing for climate evolution between 1850 and 2100

et al. 2012

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Global aerosol and ozone distributions and their associated radiative forcings were simulated between 1850 and 2100 following a recent historical emission dataset and under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) for the future. These simulations were used in an Earth System Model to account for the changes in both radiatively and chemically active compounds, when simulating the climate evolution. The past negative stratospheric ozone trends result in a negative climate forcing culminating at -0.15 W m -2 in the 1990s. In the meantime, the tropospheric ozone burden increase generates a positive climate forcing peaking at 0.41 W m -2 . The future evolution of ozone strongly depends on the RCP scenario considered. In RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, the evolution of both stratospheric and tropospheric ozone generate relatively weak radiative forcing changes until 2060-2070 followed by a relative 30 % decrease in radiative forcing by 2100. In contrast, RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 model projections exhibit strongly different ozone radiative forcing trajectories. In the RCP2.6 scenario, both effects (stratospheric ozone, a negative forcing, and tropospheric ozone, a positive forcing) decline towards 1950s values while they both get stronger in the RCP8.5 scenario. Over the twentieth century, the evolution of the total aerosol burden is characterized by a strong increase after World War II until the middle of the 1980s followed by a stabilization during the last decade due to the strong decrease in sulfates in OECD countries since the 1970s. The cooling effects reach their maximal values in 1980, with -0.34 and -0.28 W m -2 respectively for direct and indirect total radiative forcings. According to the RCP scenarios, the aerosol content, after peaking around 2010, is projected to decline strongly and monotonically during the twenty-first century for the RCP8.5, 4.5 and 2.6 scenarios. While for RCP6.0 the decline occurs later, after peaking around 2050. As a consequence the relative importance of the total cooling effect of aerosols becomes weaker throughout the twenty-first century compared with the positive forcing of greenhouse gases. Nevertheless, both surface ozone and aerosol content show very different regional features depending on the future scenario considered. Hence, in 2050, surface ozone changes vary between -12 and ?12 ppbv over Asia depending on the RCP projection, whereas the regional direct aerosol radiative forcing can locally exceed -3 W m -2 . This paper is a contribution to the special issue on the IPSL and CNRM global climate and Earth System Models, both developed in France and contributing to the 5th coupled model intercomparison project.Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article

show abstract

Section: Stratospheric Ozonementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Lmdz-reprobus Model and Set-upmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Lmdz-reprobus Model and Set-upmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Aerosol and ozone changes as forcing for climate evolution between 1850 and 2100

et al. 2012

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…2). However, CESM1.0 used for these simulations cannot generate a self-consistent QBO and hence uses wind nudging, which might cause problems when estimating QBO effects on temperature variability in the tropical lower stratosphere (Marsh et al, 2013;Morgenstern et al, 2010).…”

Section: Contribution Of the Qbomentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying contributions to the recent temperature variability in the tropical tropopause layer

2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. The recently observed variability in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL), which features a warming of 0.9 K over the past decade (2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011), is investigated with a number of sensitivity experiments from simulations with NCAR's CESM-WACCM chemistry-climate model. The experiments have been designed to specifically quantify the contributions from natural as well as anthropogenic factors, such as solar variability (Solar), sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), stratospheric aerosols (Aerosol), greenhouse gases (GHGs) and the dependence on the vertical resolution in the model. The results show that, in the TTL from 2001 through 2011, a cooling in tropical SSTs leads to a weakening of tropical upwelling around the tropical tropopause and hence relative downwelling and adiabatic warming of 0.3 K decade −1 ; stronger QBO westerlies result in a 0.2 K decade −1 warming; increasing aerosols in the lower stratosphere lead to a 0.2 K decade −1 warming; a prolonged solar minimum contributes about 0.2 K decade −1 to a cooling; and increased GHGs have no significant influence. Considering all the factors mentioned above, we compute a net 0.5 K decade −1 warming, which is less than the observed 0.9 K decade −1 warming over the past decade in the TTL. Two simulations with different vertical resolution show that, with higher vertical resolution, an extra 0.8 K decade −1 warming can be simulated through the last decade compared with results from the "standard" low vertical resolution simulation. Model results indicate that the recent warming in the TTL is partly caused by stratospheric aerosols and mainly due to internal variability, i.e. the QBO and tropical SSTs. The vertical resolution can also strongly influence the TTL temperature response in addition to variability in the QBO and SSTs.

show abstract

“…A more extensive review is given in Morgenstern et al (2010) which includes the remaining CCMVal-2 models, many of which are briefly analysed in this study. The METO, NIWA and CCSR/NIES models all provide daily PV on the 460 K and 840 K isentropic surfaces, and daily zonal winds on surfaces between 1000 and 0.1 hPa.…”

Section: Model Set-upmentioning

confidence: 99%

The nature of Arctic polar vortices in chemistry–climate models

Mitchell

Charlton‐Perez

Gray

et al. 2012

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

† The contributions of these authors were written in the course of their employment at the Met Office, UK, and are published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.The structure of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex in three chemistry-climate models (CCMs) taken from the CCMVal-2 intercomparison is examined using zonal mean and geometric-based methods. The geometric methods are employed by taking 2D moments of potential vorticity fields that are representative of the polar vortices in each of the models. This allows the vortex area, centroid location and ellipticity to be determined, as well as a measure of vortex filamentation. The first part of the study uses these diagnostics to examine how well the mean state, variability and extreme variability of the polar vortices are represented in CCMs compared to ERA-40 reanalysis data, and in particular for the UMUKCA-METO, NIWA-SOCOL and CCSR/NIES models. The second part of the study assesses how the vortices are predicted to change in terms of the frequency of sudden stratospheric warmings and their general structure over the period 1960-2100.In general, it is found that the vortices are climatologically too far poleward in the CCMs and produce too few large-scale filamentation events. Only a small increase is observed in the frequency of sudden stratospheric warming events from the mean of the CCMVal-2 models, but the distribution of extreme variability throughout the winter period is shown to change towards the end of the twentyfirst century.

show abstract

Review of the formulation of present‐generation stratospheric chemistry‐climate models and associated external forcings

Cited by 169 publications

References 140 publications

Aerosol and ozone changes as forcing for climate evolution between 1850 and 2100

Aerosol and ozone changes as forcing for climate evolution between 1850 and 2100

Quantifying contributions to the recent temperature variability in the tropical tropopause layer

The nature of Arctic polar vortices in chemistry–climate models

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About