Review of the scientific evidence to support environmental risk assessment of shale gas development in the UK

Prpich, George; Coulon, Frédéric; Anthony, Edward J.

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.11.026

Cited by 29 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 80 publications

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“…The vast majority of published papers on atmospheric inversions investigate the budget of a single species, usually a long-lived greenhouse gas like CO 2 (e.g. Rödenbeck et al, 2003) or CH 4 (e.g. Hein et al, 1997;Bousquet et al, 2006), but the technique can also be applied to active species like CO (Bergamaschi et al, 2000).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-species inversion and IAGOS airborne data for a better constraint of continental-scale fluxes

et al. 2018

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Abstract. Airborne measurements of CO2, CO, and CH4 proposed in the context of IAGOS (In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System) will provide profiles from take-off and landing of airliners in the vicinity of major metropolitan areas useful for constraining sources and sinks. A proposed improvement of the top-down method to constrain sources and sinks is the use of a multispecies inversion. Different species such as CO2 and CO have partially overlapping emission patterns for given fuel-combustion-related sectors, and thus share part of the uncertainties related both to the a priori knowledge of emissions and to model–data mismatch error. We use a regional modelling framework consisting of the Lagrangian particle dispersion model STILT (Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport) combined with the high-resolution (10 km × 10 km) EDGARv4.3 (Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research) emission inventory, differentiated by emission sector and fuel type for CO2, CO, and CH4, and combined with the VPRM (Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model) for biospheric fluxes of CO2. Applying the modelling framework to synthetic IAGOS profile observations, we evaluate the benefits of using correlations between different species' uncertainties on the performance of the atmospheric inversion. The available IAGOS CO observations are used to validate the modelling framework. Prior uncertainty values are conservatively assumed to be 20 %, for CO2 and 50 % for CO and CH4, while those for GEE (gross ecosystem exchange) and respiration are derived from existing literature. Uncertainty reduction for different species is evaluated in a domain encircling 50 % of the profile observations' surface influence over Europe. We found that our modelling framework reproduces the CO observations with an average correlation of 0.56, but simulates lower mixing ratios by a factor of 2.8, reflecting a low bias in the emission inventory. Mean uncertainty reduction achieved for CO2 fossil fuel emissions is roughly 38 %; for photosynthesis and respiration flux it is 41 and 44 % respectively. For CO and CH4 the uncertainty reduction is roughly 63 and 67 % respectively. Considering correlation between different species, posterior uncertainty can be reduced by up to 23 %; such a reduction depends on the assumed error structure of the prior and on the considered time frame. The study suggests a significant uncertainty constraint on regional emissions using multi-species inversions of IAGOS in situ observations.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-species inversion and IAGOS airborne data for a better constraint of continental-scale fluxes

et al. 2018

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“…Risk assessment is a systematic approach to identify, evaluate, manage and communicate the likelihood of occurrence and consequences of harm resulting from land contamination (Defra, 2011;Prpich et al, 2015). Risk assessment is used to support decisions by providing a structured means to gather and organise evidence in support of rational and objective arguments.…”

Section: What Is An Integrated Risk Assessment Framework?mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This is achieved by accessing, sampling, and integrating diverse stakeholder perspectives (including experts and non-experts) through an inclusive participatory process that facilitates new idea generation, while seeking to develop common understanding of shared perspectives (Sardinha et al, 2013). Stakeholder engagement can also be used to identify gaps in knowledge or reveal risk perceptions (Reed, 2008), and is often used to build trust and promote transparency, particularly for complex issues (Péry et al, 2013;Prpich et al, 2015).…”

Section: Stakeholder Engagementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Working towards an integrated land contamination management framework for Nigeria

Sam

Coulon

Prpich

2016

Science of The Total Environment

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Over the past five decades, Nigeria has developed a number of contaminated land legislations to address the damage caused primarily by oil and gas exploitation activities. Within these legislations exists elements of risk assessment and risk-based corrective action. Despite this progress, we argue that contaminated land management approaches in Nigeria need further development to be able to integrate new scientific information, and to address environmental, economic, and social values. By comparison, advanced contaminated land regimes in the United Kingdom (UK), the Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand, and the United States of America (USA) apply a number of integrative approaches (e.g. sustainability appraisal, liability regime, funding mechanisms, technology demonstration) that enable them to meet the environmental, economic, and social needs of their populations. In comparison, Nigerian governance lacks many of these mechanisms and management of contaminated land is ad hoc. In this paper we propose an integrated risk assessment framework for Nigeria that incorporates the principles of sustainability and stakeholder engagement into the decision-making processes for contaminated land risk assessment and risk management. The integrated approach relies on transparency to promote acceptance and build trust in institutions, and uses stakeholder engagement to address data deficiencies. We conclude this paper with a roadmap for how Nigeria might implement such an integrative approach into their existing contaminated land regulatory system, as well as identify a series of policy priorities that should be addressed.

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“…In fact, seismicity would be correlated in time and space with oil production from some oil and gas fields where pore pressures may decline substantially by several tens of megapascals (Segall, 1989) inducing seismic instabilities at both local and regional scales (Grasso, 1992). On the other hand, the interest in developing industry of unconventional natural gases such as the shale gas continues to grow with potential adverse impacts on the environment and public health (Hays et al, 2015;Meng, 2015;Prpich et al, 2015) although this is still debatable (Werner et al, 2015).…”

Section: Contents Lists Available At Sciencedirectmentioning

confidence: 99%

Oil, Earth mass and gravitational force

Moustafa

2016

Science of The Total Environment

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Review of the scientific evidence to support environmental risk assessment of shale gas development in the UK

Cited by 29 publications

References 80 publications

Multi-species inversion and IAGOS airborne data for a better constraint of continental-scale fluxes

Multi-species inversion and IAGOS airborne data for a better constraint of continental-scale fluxes

Working towards an integrated land contamination management framework for Nigeria

Oil, Earth mass and gravitational force

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