Review of Tsunami Hazard Potential for Gulf of Aqaba, Egypt

Abstract

Large earthquakes have affected Gulf of Aqaba with magnitudes ranging from 6 to 7.3 as examples in years 1068, 1212, 1588 AD during historical records. In recent seismicity, a large earthquake occurred on 22 November 1995, of Mw 7.3 that triggered a small tsunami that affected the port of Nuweiba in Egypt, Eilat and Aqaba beaches. The epicenter of this earthquake has been occurred between the Aragonese and Eilat basin at the central part of the Gulf of Aqaba. The long low seismicity, especially for significant events at the southern Arnona fault, manifested its act as possible seismic gap with an expected a future rupture of Mw 7.2 earthquake. This event will affect the three countries Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordon Israel coastal cities using two scenarios. We used Mirone version 3.10 software to calculate the maximum wave height at the Gulf of Aqaba cities. The main two tested scenarios depend on the 22 November 1995 which was earthquake located at the Aragonese fault and the 1068 or 1839 AD earthquake with epicenters at Arnona fault at Aqaba basins. The Nov.,1995 scenario will produce a maximum wave height of 2.10 meters in the Nuweiba and 0.5 meters at Dahab coastal cities and 0.7 meters at Eilat city. The Arnona fault second scenario will produced a maximum wave height of 1.2 m Dahab, 1.8 m Nuweiba coastal cites at Egypt and 2.10 meters at Magna Saudi Arabia with less wave height to 1.2 m at Eilat city and Aqaba at Israel and Jordon respectively.