Reviewing estimates of the basic reproduction number for dengue, Zika and chikungunya across global climate zones

Liu, Ying; Lillepold, Kate; Semenza, Jan C.; Tozan, Yesim; Quam, Mikkel; Rocklöv, Joacim

doi:10.1016/j.envres.2020.109114

Cited by 60 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 93 publications

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“…Theoretically, the proportion of immune population greater than 1-1/Basic reproduction number(R0) is required to eliminate the infection by maintaining reproduction number less than 1 [19]. R0 of ZIKV in tropical areas varied from minimum of 1.22 to maximum of 6.9 [20]. Taking the maximum value of 6.9, the prevalence needed to stop the transmission would be up to 85.5%.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Survey on neutralizing antibodies against Zika virus eighteen months post-outbreak in two southern Thailand communities

et al. 2020

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Background In 2016 and 2017, Zika virus (ZIKV) infection outbreaks occurred in two communities in southern Thailand. This re-immerging infection can widely spread by mosquito bites and cause serious complications in a central nervous system among children born to infected mothers. Thus, they should be protected. This study aims to (1) To determine the prevalence of neutralizing ZIKV antibodies in the post-outbreak areas among the general population and pregnancy women residing at various distances from the houses of the nearest index patients; (2) To examine the cross-neutralizing capacity of antibodies against ZIKV on other flaviviruses commonly found in the study areas; (3) To identify factors associated with the presence of neutralizing ZIKV antibodies. Methods The two post-outbreak communities were visited at 18 months after the outbreaks. We enrolled (1) 18 confirmed ZIKV infected (index) cases, (2) sample of 554 neighbors in the outbreak areas who lived at various distances from the index patients’ houses, (3) 190 residents of non-outbreak areas, and (4) all pregnant women regardless of gestational age residing in the study areas (n = 805). All serum specimens underwent the plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT). Ten randomly selected ZIKV seropositive and ten randomly selected seronegative specimens were tested for dengue virus serotypes 1–4 (DENV1–4) and Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) antibodies using PRNT90. Serum titer above 1:10 was considered positive. Multiple logistic regression was used to assess factors associated with seropositivity. Results Out of all 18 index cases, 9 remained seropositive. The seroprevalence (95% CI) in the two outbreak areas were 43.7% (35.9–51.6%) and 29.7% (23.3–36.0%) in general population, and 24.3% (20.1–28.8%) and 12.8% (9.7–16.5%) in pregnant women. Multivariate analysis showed that seropositivity was independent of the distance gradient from the index’s houses. However, being elderly was associated with seropositivity. DENV1–4 and JEV neutralizing antibodies were present in most ZIKV-positive and negative subsamples. Conclusion Protective herd immunity for ZIKV infection is inadequate, especially among pregnant women in the two post-outbreak areas in southern Thailand.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Survey on neutralizing antibodies against Zika virus eighteen months post-outbreak in two southern Thailand communities

et al. 2020

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“… 26 But recent analyses indicate that climate change has had a more decisive role 27 and that climate change could have similar effects on other mosquito-borne diseases in some regions. 28 Other analyses have implicated climate change in the increasing incidence of diseases like Lyme and tick-borne encephalitis. 29 30 Notably, this evidence has arisen from groups based in regions with more access to climate change and health research funds.…”

Section: Tipping Towards Actionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Strengthening the global response to climate change and infectious disease threats

Hess

Boodram

Paz

et al. 2020

BMJ

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“…However, genetic mutations favouring such adaptations have not yet been detected in MAYV [25]. viruses, respectively, in tropical regions [70]. Another study estimated the R 0 for MAYV using parameters fitted to data from a 2018 chikungunya virus outbreak in Rio de Janeiro.…”

Section: At Least Eight Species Of Mosquitoes Can Be Naturally Infectmentioning

confidence: 99%

The epidemiology of Mayaro virus in the Americas: A systematic review and key parameter estimates for outbreak modelling

Caicedo¹,

Charniga²,

Rueda³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Mayaro virus (MAYV) is an arbovirus that is endemic to tropical forests in Central and South America, particularly within the Amazon basin. In recent years, concern has increased regarding MAYV’s ability to invade urban areas and cause epidemics across the region. We conducted a systematic literature review to characterise the evolutionary history of MAYV, its transmission potential, and exposure patterns to the virus. We analysed data from the literature on MAYV infection to produce estimates of key epidemiological parameters, including the generation time and the basic reproduction number, R0. We also estimated the force-of-infection (FOI) in epidemic and endemic settings. Seventy-six publications met our inclusion criteria. Evidence of MAYV infection in humans, animals, or vectors was reported in 14 Latin American countries. Nine countries reported evidence of acute infection in humans confirmed by viral isolation or reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR). We identified at least five MAYV outbreaks. Seroprevalence from population based cross-sectional studies ranged from 21% to 72%. The estimated mean generation time of MAYV was 15.2 days (95% CrI: 11.7-19.8) with a standard deviation of 6.3 days (95% CrI: 4.2-9.5). The per-capita risk of MAYV infection (FOI) ranged between 0.01 and 0.05 per year, producing R0 estimates between 1.1 and 2.9 in endemic settings. In an outbreak in Santa Cruz, Bolivia, R0 was estimated at 2.2 (95% CrI: 0.8-4.8). Although MAYV has been identified in urban vectors, there is not yet evidence of sustained urban transmission. MAYV’s enzootic cycle could become established in forested areas within cities similar to yellow fever virus.Author summaryEach year, diseases that are transmitted by mosquitoes cause substantial deaths and disability across the world. We performed a systematic literature review of Mayaro virus (MAYV) and estimated key epidemiological parameters that can be used to improve future outbreak response. We estimated the generation time and basic reproduction number for a historical outbreak. Our results suggest that the force-of-infection of MAYV in endemic settings is low. We did not find evidence of substantial urban transmission of MAYV. Nevertheless, similarities between MAYV and yellow fever virus epidemiology suggest that MAYV could emerge in urban areas. Local transmission of MAYV has never been reported outside of Central and South America. Our results highlight the need to continue monitoring emerging arboviruses in the Americas.

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Reviewing estimates of the basic reproduction number for dengue, Zika and chikungunya across global climate zones

Cited by 60 publications

References 93 publications

Survey on neutralizing antibodies against Zika virus eighteen months post-outbreak in two southern Thailand communities

Survey on neutralizing antibodies against Zika virus eighteen months post-outbreak in two southern Thailand communities

Strengthening the global response to climate change and infectious disease threats

The epidemiology of Mayaro virus in the Americas: A systematic review and key parameter estimates for outbreak modelling

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