Revisiting economic burdens of malaria in the face of climate change: a conceptual analysis for Ethiopia

Abstract

Purpose Climate change affects the geographic and seasonal range of malaria incidence, especially, in poor tropical countries. This paper aims to attempt to conceptualize the potential economic repercussions of such effects with its focus on Ethiopia. Design/methodology/approach The paper is conceptual and descriptive in its design. It first reviews existing literature and evidence on the economic burdens of malaria, and the impacts of climate change on malaria disease. It then draws the economic implications of the expected malaria risk under the future climate. This is accompanied by a discussion on a set of methods that can be used to quantify the economic effects of malaria with or without climate change. Findings A review of available evidence shows that climate change is likely to increase the geographic and seasonal range of malaria incidence in Ethiopia. The economic consequences of even a marginal increase in malaria risk will be substantial as one considers the projected impacts of climate change through other channels, the current population exposed to malaria risk and the country’s health system, economic structure and level of investment. The potential effects have the potency to require more household and public spending for health, to perpetuate poverty and inequality and to strain agricultural and regional development. Originality/value This paper sheds light on the economic implications of climate change impacts on malaria, particularly, in Agrarian countries laying in the tropics. It illustrates how such impacts will interact with other impact channels of climate change, and thus evolve to influence the macro-economy. The paper also proposes a set of methods that can be used to quantify the potential economic effects of malaria. The paper seeks to stimulate future research on this important topic which rather has been neglected.

Achievements, Gaps, and Emerging Challenges in Controlling Malaria in Ethiopia

“…A case study in northern Ethiopia shows that climate change may increase area suitable for malaria transmission by 94 to 114% by 2050 (45). Overall, countrywide, up to 130 million people may be at risk of malaria by 2070 (46) that could induce substantial economic costs (8,42).…”

“…Currently, more than 50% of the population in Ethiopia is exposed to the risk of malaria infection (3)(4)(5). Despite the range of prevention measures undertaken in the last two decades, malaria remains to be one of the top ten causes of morbidity and mortality in Ethiopia (6) with substantial repercussions for the macroeconomy (7,8). The effects of malaria propel into the macroeconomy through two main channels.…”

“…The effects of malaria propel into the macroeconomy through two main channels. The first is through agricultural labor productivity changes as the malaria transmission seasons (September to December, and April to May) coincide with the main agriculture harvest seasons (5,7,8). Agriculture is the main source of employment (≈ 75%) and merchandise export earnings (≈ 80%) in Ethiopia (9).…”

“…The second way is through government budget allocation and fiscal balance as government is the main health service provider (4). Seen against the forgoing conditions in Ethiopia, even a marginal increase in the risk of malaria has profound socio-economic implications making malaria disease public health as well as economic problem (8).…”