Revisiting the Causal Links between Economic Sanctions and Human Rights Violations

Abstract

There is some consensus in the literature that economic sanctions might prompt more human rights abuses in target countries. Yet, the causal mechanisms underlining the sanctions–repression nexus remain little understood. Using causal mediation analysis, we examine the processes through which sanctions might deteriorate human rights conditions. We specifically propose two indirect mechanisms driving human rights violations: increased domestic dissent and reduced government capacity. Sanctions are likely to trigger domestic dissent, and this instability would further induce the government to employ repression. Reduced government capacity caused by sanctions will harm the government’s ability to screen and oversee its security agents, which would subsequently lead to increased human rights abuses. Results from a time-series, cross-national data analysis indicate that sanctions-induced dissent, particularly violent dissent, plays a significant mediating role in the sanctions–repression link. Likewise, we find strong evidence that diminished fiscal capacity triggered by sanctions is likely to result in more repression. There is also some modest evidence that corruption as a proxy for poor governance mediates the sanctions–repression relationship.

Pressures From Home and Abroad: Economic Sanctions and Target Government Response to Domestic Campaigns

“…Second, sanctions as an external sign of the regime’s disapproval will likely embolden nonviolent campaigns (Liou et al 2021). International pressure will enable nonviolent groups to further mobilize the domestic public to join their movement.…”

“…Sanctions allow nonviolent campaigns to use the external disapproval as leverage to rally more support to their cause (Peksen and Drury 2010; Grauvogel et al 2017). Citizens who suffer from the adverse economic effects of sanctions might be more inclined to join nonviolent resistance to express their dissatisfaction with the government (Allen 2008; Liou et al 2021). Growing economic hardships might create more grievances and frustration against the government.…”

SASCAT: Natural language processing approach to the study of economic sanctions

“…For example, more flexibility in sanctions legislation may translate into reduced effectiveness by sending a weaker signal of resolve to the target, or it may translate into greater effectiveness by allowing the executive to calibrate the use of sanctions more carefully. At the same time, greater flexibility may reduce unintended consequences by allowing the executive to use its expertise to implement sanctions in ways that mitigate unwanted effects, such as increased repression or worsened humanitarian conditions in the target country (Peksen & Drury, 2010; Moret, 2015; Liou, Murdie & Peksen, 2021).…”

International sanctions and development: Evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean (1950–2019)

“…In all cases the results arise from a broad group of developed and developing countries in multiple regions. Some of the literature explores the impact of international sanctions on dimensions such as respect for human rights and democracy (Carneiro, 2014; Liou et al, 2021), labour informality (Eatly & Peksen, 2019), population health (Aloosh et al, 2019; Gutmann et al, 2021) or environmental performance (Fu et al, 2020).…”