Revisiting the Precursors of Cyclonic Systems in the CORDEX RCM REMO2009 Simulations

Sinha, Asha; Sarthi, P. Parth; Kumar, Praveen

doi:10.1007/s00024-022-03202-w

Cited by 3 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 113 publications

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“…This bimodal behavior of TCDs activities over the BoB in both models during past time scale has been earlier well noted by Vishnu et al 22 for RegCM4 and Sinha et al 36 for REMO2009. It is noteworthy that both the models are attributed with high false alarms in the historical time however REMO2009 seems to have higher hit rate than the RegCM4 22,23,36 in past. Further, it is worth mentioning that changes in TCDs frequencies as compared to TCDs occurrences in past environmental conditions are at present beyond the scope of current research.…”

Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 84%

“…Further, it is worth mentioning that changes in TCDs frequencies as compared to TCDs occurrences in past environmental conditions are at present beyond the scope of current research. However, we infer that in comparison to previous findings 22,36 for RegCM4 and REMO2009 respectively, the changes in the TCDFs are likely due to alterations in the genesis conditions. 23 Further, we assessed the intensity of TCDs during future time period 2031-2060 in the RCMs REMO2009 and RegCM4 under both RCPs R4.5 and R8.5.…”

Section: Methodscontrasting

confidence: 82%

“…The results show that in near future time period also, the projected TCDs will have two distinct peaks (i.e., bimodal behavior) with primary peak in post-monsoon months and secondary in the pre-monsoon months 8,18,21,23 over the BoB. This bimodal behavior of TCDs activities over the BoB in both models during past time scale has been earlier well noted by Vishnu et al 22 for RegCM4 and Sinha et al 36 for REMO2009. It is noteworthy that both the models are attributed with high false alarms in the historical time however REMO2009 seems to have higher hit rate than the RegCM4 22,23,36 in past.…”

Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 77%

“…The intensity is intermittently associated with the wind speed thus low MCPs indicate possibilities of high MSSW. Moreover, we see increased intensities in the future projected TCDs as depicted by the models in comparison to previous researches on past periods in high resolution climate models 21,22,23,36 For instance, in the future projected TCDs, RegCM4 shows highest intensity shows 942 hPa and 950 hPa under R4.5 and R8.5 while REMO2009 shows 966 hPa and 950 hPa under R4.5 and R8.5. It is evident that TCDs under R4.5 have more intensity in model RegCM4 while slightly weak intensity in REMO2009.…”

Section: Methodscontrasting

confidence: 42%

“…For assessing the SLP over BoB and its role as possible precursor, the BoB is classified into six zones namely NorthWest Bay (NWB), NorthEast Bay (NEB), WestCentral Bay (WCB), EastCentral Bay (ECB), SouthWest Bay (SWB) and SouthEast Bay (SEB). 35,36 The overall results show that both models under both RCPs produce decreased SLP in May month indicating possibilities of highly intense TCDs in the month. The BoB shows minimum SLP climatology in pre-monsoon as 1004 hPa, 1005 hPa, 1003 hPa and 1004 hPa in future conditions of REMO2009-4.5, RegCM4-4.5, REMO2009-8.5 and RegCM4-8.5 respectively.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 81%

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Frequency and Intensity of Cyclonic Systems in CORDEX RCMs Model Environment under the Future Emission Scenarios

K Sinha,

Sarthi

2023

Curr. World Environ

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Tropical Cyclonic Disturbances (TCDs) are one of the most extreme meteorological calamities bringing destruction to life and livelihood in the coastal societies across the globe. With the rising concerns of climate change today, addressing the TCDs in future scenarios under the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in climate models becomes a necessity. The current study investigates the frequency and intensity of these cyclonic systems in future climate over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) which is one of most vulnerable regions on earth for deadliest TCDs. To assess the TCDs frequency and intensity, we have considered TCDs in regional climate model REMO2009 and RegCM4 in future climatic conditions. The future climatic conditions include the intermediate emissions (IE) represented as RCP4.5 (R4.5) and high emission (HE) pathways i.e., RCP8.5 (R8.5). For this, we have considered the upcoming decades 2031-2060 (as near future climate) at model horizontal resolution 0.44°x0.44° (spatial resolution ~ 50 km) under both RCPs in both models i.e., REMO2009 under R4.5, RegCM4 under R4.5, REMO2009 under R8.5 and RegCM4 under R8.5. The projected TCD frequencies in the models under both the RCPs show high occurrence frequencies. Further, we observe a bimodal characteristic in the occurrence with October as primary TCD active month and May as secondary in almost all conditions. However, highly intense TCDs are more dominant in the month of May. The projected TCDs in future emissions scenarios likely show slightly increased TCDs besides surge in the intensity. The current results possibly suggest more potential destructive impacts due to TCDs on the coastal societies lying beside the BoB in upcoming decades. Thus, the present study is likely to help in framing TCDs associated mitigation and adaptation policies by the apex decision making authorities.

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Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 84%

Section: Methodscontrasting

confidence: 82%

Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 77%

Section: Methodscontrasting

confidence: 42%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 81%

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Frequency and Intensity of Cyclonic Systems in CORDEX RCMs Model Environment under the Future Emission Scenarios

K Sinha,

Sarthi

2023

Curr. World Environ

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Near-term efficient predictability of dry and wet years during West African monsoon season

Okoro,

Chen,

Dike

2024

Theor Appl Climatol

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Connection Between Mainland-indochina Monsoon Onset Dates and Cyclones Over Andaman Sea Bay of Bengal Basin

Oo,

JONAH

2024

Preprint

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This study delves into the intricate connection between Mainland Indochina Southwest Monsoon (MSWM) onset dates and tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and Arabian Sea (ABMS). Utilizing datasets like IBTrACS, ERA5 reanalysis, and CHRIPS daily rainfall data, the research highlights the influence of TCs on monsoon onset, emphasizing sea surface temperatures and rainfall intensity. The bimodal distribution of cyclones during early and late-onset years is noted, characterizing MSWM onset by the April-June TC count. Significant correlations emerge between cyclone frequency, monsoon onset dates, SST, and rainfall patterns. Cyclones impact agriculture, water resources, and disaster preparedness in monsoon-dependent regions. Employing a robust methodology, the study reveals a complex relationship between TCs and monsoon onset, with early-onset years experiencing higher TC numbers. Additionally, the research explores the impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), associating positive phases with late monsoon onset and negative phases with early onset and increased rainfall. The findings underscore TCs' multifaceted role in shaping the monsoon, offering insights into intricate climate variables and cyclone dynamics in the northern Indian Ocean.

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Revisiting the Precursors of Cyclonic Systems in the CORDEX RCM REMO2009 Simulations

Cited by 3 publications

References 113 publications

Frequency and Intensity of Cyclonic Systems in CORDEX RCMs Model Environment under the Future Emission Scenarios

Frequency and Intensity of Cyclonic Systems in CORDEX RCMs Model Environment under the Future Emission Scenarios

Near-term efficient predictability of dry and wet years during West African monsoon season

Connection Between Mainland-indochina Monsoon Onset Dates and Cyclones Over Andaman Sea Bay of Bengal Basin

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