Revolutionary mass uprisings in authoritarian regimes

Abstract

This article explores the conditions under which revolutionary mass uprisings are likely to occur. We offer a probabilistic explanation of the social and political conditions that make people rise against autocrats. The article presents a medium-n dataset of 79 revolutionary mass uprisings in 165 autocracies since 1945. Since revolutions are rare events, a combination of factors must come together to trigger them. Drawing on the extant literature on revolutionary change, we find initial support for a range of discrete factors. Our findings suggest that four such factors are particularly powerful explanations of revolutionary mass uprisings—and a combination of those factors will go a long way in predicting revolutionary change: a history of protracted low-level popular contention; the presence of personalist regimes; long tenure of incumbents in office; and the showroom effect of uprisings in the temporal and spatial vicinity of states. In a broader theoretical perspective, these findings give rise to a breaking-point explanation of revolutionary situations, emphasizing that mass uprisings build up over time, whereas structuralist theories or grievance-based approaches fare less well in predicting revolutionary ruptures.

State international income position, trade openness, and mass antigovernment protests

“…Because contiguity as well facilitates communication and transportation, people are more likely to be susceptible to the influence of nearby nations, and neighboring states tend to share homogenous cultures. Relatedly, Albrecht and Koehler (2020) find that revolutions are contagious. So, according to the socialized comparison theory , people are inclined to conceive of intraregional states as comparable.…”

State crisis theory: A systematization of institutional, socio-ecological, demographic-structural, world-systems, and revolutions research

“…A number of influential factors are not limited to sufficiency crises (and so are mentioned both here and in the discussion of scarcity crisis below). 'Personalist' states, where power has become concentrated around the incumbent leader, are more likely to lead to state breakdown, particularly when such a leader has been in office for a long period (Albrecht andKoehler, 2020, Goldstone et al, 2022, p. 46). In general, both open states and closed states are thought less likely to experience violent breakdown than partial states.…”

How does civil war begin? The role of escalatory processes

“…The ideal type of an escalation in a revolutionary situation embodies this combination. Revolutionary situations here refer to circumstances that include those of Tilly’s (1993) well-known definition, but also involve another crucial aspect: fast-moving processes of mobilization, defection, and realignment (Albrecht and Koehler, 2020; Bennani-Chraïbi, 2017). In Lenin’s (1966: 85) words, such situations see a “rapid, tenfold and even hundredfold increase” in those willing to join the challengers.…”