Revolutions, Counterrevolutions, and Democracy

Гринин, Леонид; Korotayev, Andrey

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-86468-2_4

Cited by 36 publications

(8 citation statements)

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“…The wave comprises revolutions and revolutionary events in Georgia (Khodunov 2022b), the Maldives (Kaigorodova 2021) and Ukraine (Shevsky 2022), Lebanon (Kaigorodova 2020), Kyrgyzstan (Ivanov 2022), Myanmar, Iran, andMoldova (Tkachuk et al 2022). Sometimes researchers add the events in Africa to this list, and for our topic it is important to take into account the revolutionary events in sub-Saharan Africa in the 2000s, in particular, in Senegal in 2000, Madagascar in 2001-2002, Togo in 2005and Guinea in 2007-2010 (see Goldstone et al 2022a, b;Grinin and Korotayev 2022a;Ustyuzhanin et al 2021). It is important that in this period the general rise of the global economy went along with the rise of democratization in the world (the so-called third wave of democratization -see, e.g., Huntington 1993).…”

Section: On the Waves Of Revolutionary Events Of The Twenty-first Cen...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Current Wave of Revolutions in the World-System and Its Zones

Гринин¹,

Гринин²

2022

jogs

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The twenty-first century has turned out to be very turbulent and restless in various respects. In the present article we consider the aspect of revolutionary activity. We observe already the third revolutionary wave within two decades.In the present article we consider the global wave of revolutionary events that started in 2018 and continue up to now. And we pay special attention to the revolutionary events of 2018-2022 in the Afrasian instability macrozone, including the MENA region. The impact of new events on the adjacent worldsystem zones and the World System in general is studied in connection with the previous wave and in comparison with its impact. It is shown that the recent events in in the MENA region continue the World System reconfiguration process within the framework of transformation of the world order. We point out several aspects of the impact of these revolutionary events on the World System and its parts. First, they weaken the World System core; in particular, the Taliban's victory in Afghanistan heavily influences the positions of the USA and its allies. Secondly, the Middle East is increasingly left on its own due to the planned and forced withdrawal of the United States and due to the search for new vectors in foreign policy. And the revolutionary events contribute to this. Thirdly, the radical Islamist influence continues to be very noticeable, both in connection with the Taliban's victory and with further penetration of remaining revolutionary terrorists of the Islamic State to the Sahel countries and further to other African countries. In fact, one may say that in the South, the Afrasian macrozone of instability borders on a peculiar zone of instability, which can be called African. The latter is expanding together with intensification of radicalism and may significantly expand in the future at the expense of African countries that have not yet been affected by it. Fourthly, the growing danger of Islamist revolutionary-terrorist radicalism poses a problem for statehood in the countries of Tropical Africa (which they start to resolve in some places), and also requires more active and extensive assistance on the part of the international community.

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Section: On the Waves Of Revolutionary Events Of The Twenty-first Cen...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The second wave is the Arab Spring and its aftermath (2010/2011-2013[Grinin and Korotayev 2022a, 2022bGrinin et al 2019;Beck 2014]). In contrast to the previous wave, in the late 2000s the world economy was in crisis.…”

Section: On the Waves Of Revolutionary Events Of The Twenty-first Cen...mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Current Wave of Revolutions in the World-System and Its Zones

Гринин¹,

Гринин²

2022

jogs

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“…In fact, there are several reasons for educated people to choose the tactics of non-violence. They can be summarized as follows: (1) education changes ideological preferences in favor of democracy and commitment to civil liberties, fostering a culture of peaceful discussion and tolerance (Dahlum, 2019; Dee, 2004; Galston, 2001; Inglehart et al, 2015; Lipset, 1960); (2) as a result of getting education, individuals increase the level of human capital, which leads to a rise in the relative costs of participating in violent revolutions/campaigns that require taking more risks and abandoning the usual life (Hall et al, 1986; Thyne, 2006; Barakat & Urdal, 2009; Dahlum & Wig, 2019; Østby et al, 2019; Dahl et al, 2021); (3) education lowers the cost of participating in a peaceful revolution/protest by facilitating cooperation and understanding political processes, which makes it possible to achieve success through nonviolent revolutions/campaigns recognized as more successful and less costly (Dahlum, 2019; Dee, 2004; Galston, 2001; Glaeser et al, 2007; Grinin & Korotayev, 2022; Abd Rabou, 2016; Stephan & Chenoweth, 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(3) education lowers the cost of participating in a peaceful revolution/protest by facilitating cooperation and understanding political processes, which makes it possible to achieve success through nonviolent revolutions/campaigns recognized as more successful and less costly (Galston 6 2001;Dee 2004;Glaeser, Ponzetto and Shleifer 2007;Stephan and Chenoweth 2008;Rabou 2016;Dahlum 2019;Grinin and Korotayev 2021); (4) proliferation of formal education leads to the increase of share of highly educated people (including students) in the revolutionary protests; with the development of women's education, the number of female protesters is growing, and women are much less prone to violence and even more armed violence (Grinin et al 2017;Dahlum 2019;Korotayev and Zinkina 2021).…”

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confidence: 99%

Education and Revolutions: Why do Revolutionary Uprisings Take Violent or Nonviolent Forms?

Ustyuzhanin

Korotayev

2023

Cross-Cultural Research

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Is there a relationship between education and the type of revolutionary action – violent or nonviolent? Past studies found a positive relationship between the education and nonviolence, but the influence that education produces on the form that revolution takes has not yet been explored. We show several possible mechanisms that push the educated population to choose nonviolent tactic: (1) education changes people’s preferences toward peaceful solutions and increases support for civil liberties; (2) it enhances human capital that makes it feasible to use unarmed tactics successfully and (3) it increases the relative costs of engaging in armed action. Thus, it is reasonable to assume that the higher education in a country, the higher the probability that revolution will be nonviolent. This paper examines it at a cross-national level with an analysis of 470 NAVCO ‘maximalist campaigns’ and 265 revolutionary events recorded between 1950 and 2020. Overall, we find robust evidence that the higher the level of education in a country, the lower chance that the revolution there would take a violent/armed form.

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confidence: 99%