Rewilding by Wolf Recolonisation, Consequences for Ungulate Populations and Game Hunting

Abstract

The ongoing recolonisations of human-transformed environments in Europe by large carnivores like the wolf Canis lupus means that conservation conflicts could re-surface, among other reasons, due to predation on ungulate game species. We estimated the effect of wolves on ungulate species using data on wolf prey selection, kill rates and territory size to build a hypothetical case of future expansion. We extrapolated results on predation from the current wolf distribution in central Sweden and eastern Poland to the eventual wolf recolonisation of southern Sweden. We then calculated the proportion of five ungulate game species killed annually by wolves, and the ratio between the predicted annual predation by wolves given future colonization and the number of ungulates currently harvested by hunters. Results showed that wolf recolonization in southern Sweden would have a minor impact on the estimated population densities of red deer Cervus elaphus, fallow deer Dama dama and wild boar Sus scrofa, but is likely to lead to a significant reduction in human captures of moose Alces alces and roe deer Capreolus capreolus. The current five-ungulate species system in southern Sweden suggests a potential for two to four times higher wolf density than the two-ungulate species system in the northern part of their current distribution. Management and conservation of recolonizing large carnivores require a better understanding of the observed impact on game populations under similar ecological conditions to ameliorate conservation conflicts and achieve a paradigm of coexistence. Integrating these predictions into management is paramount to the current rewilding trend occurring in many areas of Europe or North America.

Wolf Is Back: A Novel Sensitive Sentinel Rejoins the Trichinella Cycle in the Western Alps

“…The grey wolf ( Canis lupus ) is an apex carnivore of remarkable conservation interest, notoriously extirpated from vast areas of its Palaearctic range between the 18th to early 20th century. In the last decades, however, the scattered wolf populations that survived in Europe are again increasing in number and spreading in several countries, thanks to a mix of favorable contingencies (e.g., the abundance of wild ungulate prey) strengthened by effective conservation policies implemented since the second half of the 20th century [ 6 ]. Regarding the Alps, no wolf was present since the 1920–1930’s, when even the westernmost part of these mountains (eventually corresponding to our study area) was cleared of the last survivors.…”

Forecasting dynamics of a recolonizing wolf population under different management strategies

“…This is particularly true in Washington, where the urban-wildland gradient is changing quickly and wolves are settling in areas with more livestock grazing (Hanley et al 2018). Human-wolf conflicts arise due to issues such as livestock depredation, competition for hunted game species, and the perceived threat of potential direct attacks on humans (Treves and Karanth 2003, Rodríguez-Recio et al 2022). Currently, the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife uses lethal removals in response to livestock depredation, and we considered an increase in lethal removals in our scenarios to account for this potential increase in human-wildlife conflict.…”

Using citizen data in a population model to estimate population size of moose (Alces alces)

“…At present, wolves are mainly concentrated in moose dominated areas, but as the wolf population expands to the south, other deer species become more abundant. Therefore, we would need to include more detailed data on the rate and composition of prey species killed by wolves in this part of the country (Rodríguez-Recio et al, 2022).…”

“…In Sweden, dense moose populations cause cascading indirect effects on the forest ecosystem (Felton et al, 2019). The return of carnivores such as wolves (Canis lupus) and brown bear (Ursus arctos) needs increased consideration in management plans as they prey on moose (Rodríguez-Recio et al, 2022).…”