Rice Production, Trade and the Poor: Regional Effects of Rice Export Policy on Households in Vietnam

Abstract

Analysing Vietnam's rice export policy and recent export ban in the context of rising food prices, this study combines insights from a regionally‐disaggregated or ‘bottom‐up’ CGE model and a micro‐simulation using household data. Three main conclusions are drawn. First, although there is little impact on GDP, there are substantial distributional impacts across regions and households from different export policies and market conditions. Second, both rural and urban households, including poor households, benefit from free trade, even though domestic rice prices are higher. Finally, under free trade, relatively large gains accrue to rural households, where poverty is most pervasive in Vietnam.

From Food Crisis to Agrarian Crisis? Food Security Strategy and Rural Livelihoods in Vietnam

“…2 Even today, as Vietnam has become more affluent and as diets have shifted accordingly, the average Vietnamese person consumes most of her calories in the form of rice; on average, this translates to 1400 calories per day, equivalent to approximately 170 kg of rice per capita per year (Hai 2012, p. 3;Tsukada 2011, p. 59). The importance of rice to the Vietnamese diet is especially acute when it comes to the rural poor and urban working class, who are most dependent on this relatively cheap staple (Coxhead et al 2012), and for whom rice represents a major expenditure, making them extremely sensitive to fluctuations in its price (Ha et al 2015).…”

The Political Economy of Policy Exceptionalism During Economic Transition: The Case of Rice Policy in Vietnam

“…Trends are described at both macro-and micro-levels using quantitative data. In particular, at macro-levels, we use aggregate statistics on population, gross domestic product (GDP), imports and exports, prices from various sources, notably Vietnam's General Statistics Office (GSO), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and International Rice Re-Goletti (1998); Ghosh and Whalley (2004); Ha et al (2015) for Vietnam, by Warr (2008);McCulloch (2008) for Indonesia, by Martin and Anderson (2011); Anderson and Nelgen (2012); Ivanic and Martin (2014) for the world. For the latter, see their impact on bilateral trade between Bangladesh and India in (Dorosh, 2008), among Southeast Asian countries Hoang and Meyers (2015); Alavi and Htenas (2015), world prices by Headey and Fan (2008); Anderson and Martin (2009); Dawe (2010); Timmer (2012); Tadasse et al (2016) just to name a few.…”

Optimal Rice Land Protection in a Command Economy

“…At the household level, rice represents 60% and 25% of household calorie consumption and food expenditure of an average household, and 70% and 40% of poor households, respectively (Vu, 2008). Meanwhile, rice production involves about 66% of rural households and 77% of poor households (Ha et al, 2015). At the country level, rice export revenues contribute about 3% of total GDP (General Statistic Office, 2011), and used to be one of the most significant contributors to Vietnam's foreign reserves, when the country shifted, with agricultural and market reforms, from being a net food importer to now a key rice exporter in the world.…”

“…See for example,Budd (1993) for Cote d'Ivoire,Barrett and Dorosh (1996) for Madagascar; andFriedman and Levinsohn (2002) for Indonesia; Valero-Gil and Valero (2008) for Mexico,Minot and Goletti (1998); Vu and Glewwe (2011);Ha et al (2015) for Vietnam,Ivanic and Martin (2008) for developing countries, among others.…”