Right‐to‐Carry Laws and Violent Crime: A Comprehensive Assessment Using Panel Data and a State‐Level Synthetic Control Analysis

Donohue, John J.; Aneja, Abhay; Weber, Kyle D.

doi:10.1111/jels.12219

Cited by 145 publications

(87 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…For the first goal, a natural approach is to follow the SC literature on evaluating the accuracy of the SC estimator or combining multiple SC estimators by using the inverse of the MSPE values for each SC estimator . For cluster i in period j , the MSPE of the SC fit is given by Equation .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Novel methods for the analysis of stepped wedge cluster randomized trials

Kennedy‐Shaffer

Gruttola

Lipsitch

2019

Statistics in Medicine

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Stepped wedge cluster randomized trials (SW‐CRTs) have become increasingly popular and are used for a variety of interventions and outcomes, often chosen for their feasibility advantages. SW‐CRTs must account for time trends in the outcome because of the staggered rollout of the intervention. Robust inference procedures and nonparametric analysis methods have recently been proposed to handle such trends without requiring strong parametric modeling assumptions, but these are less powerful than model‐based approaches. We propose several novel analysis methods that reduce reliance on modeling assumptions while preserving some of the increased power provided by the use of mixed effects models. In one method, we use the synthetic control approach to find the best matching clusters for a given intervention cluster. Another method makes use of within‐cluster crossover information to construct an overall estimator. We also consider methods that combine these approaches to further improve power. We test these methods on simulated SW‐CRTs, describing scenarios in which these methods have increased power compared with existing nonparametric methods while preserving nominal validity when mixed effects models are misspecified. We also demonstrate theoretical properties of these estimators with less restrictive assumptions than mixed effects models. Finally, we propose avenues for future research on the use of these methods; motivation for such research arises from their flexibility, which allows the identification of specific causal contrasts of interest, their robustness, and the potential for incorporating covariates to further increase power. Investigators conducting SW‐CRTs might well consider such methods when common modeling assumptions may not hold.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Novel methods for the analysis of stepped wedge cluster randomized trials

Kennedy‐Shaffer

Gruttola

Lipsitch

2019

Statistics in Medicine

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“…Moreover, the method offers a series of placebo tests that allow for formal inferences to be generated and that help to ensure that the resulting D–D estimate is not the result of an intervention whose timing is insufficiently random. The method has become ubiquitous in recent years and, in crime research, has been used to estimate the treatment effects of political corruption (Grier & Maynard, 2016), place‐based crime policies (Robbins, Saunders, & Kilmer, 2017; Saunders, Lundberg, Braga, Ridgeway, & Miles, 2015), and gun control laws (Donohue, Aneja, & Weber, 2017; Williams, 2017) among other policies.…”

Section: Empirical Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

Immigration enforcement, crime, and demography

Chalfin

Deza

2020

Criminology & Public Policy

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Research Summary This research leverages a remarkable natural experiment created by recent legislation in Arizona to study the impact of labor market immigration enforcement on crime. We show that Arizona's Mexican immigrant population decreased by as much as 20% in the wake of the passage of a broad‐based “E‐Verify” law requiring employers to verify the immigration status of new employees. In contrast to previous literature that studied traditional law enforcement‐based immigration enforcement programs such as “Secure Communities,” we find evidence that labor market‐based immigration enforcement led to a decline in some types of crime– particularly property crimes. Policy Implications It is critical to note that the crime reduction we observe is driven by an unprecedented decline in the share of the immigrant population that is young and male. As such, the effects are purely compositional, suggesting that young immigrant men are no more likely to commit crimes relative to young native men. Given that young immigrant men have high labor market participation and contribute disproportionately to economic output, this research highlights the promise, but also the potentially high costs, of labor market immigration enforcement.

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“…The Violence Policy Center () identified 33 incidents between May 2007 and January 2019 in which someone with a permit to carry a concealed firearm shot and killed three or more people in an incident. Prior studies designed to estimate the impact of reducing legal restrictions on civilian concealed gun carrying in public places have been plagued by methodological limitations and have found inconsistent relationships between the adoption of such laws and homicides (Crifasi et al., ; Donohue, Aneja, & Weber, ; Morral, ). As a result, there is great uncertainty about the impact of laws that reduce barriers to civilian gun carrying on fatal mass shootings.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence concerning the regulation of firearms design, sale, and carrying on fatal mass shootings in the United States

Webster

McCourt

Crifasi

et al. 2020

Criminology & Public Policy

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Research Summary We used data from the FBI's Supplemental Homicide Reports and other publicly available databases to calculate state‐level annual incidence of fatal mass shootings for 1984–2017. Negative binomial regression models were used to estimate the associations between changes in key gun laws and fatal mass shootings. Handgun purchaser licensing laws and bans of large‐capacity magazines (LCMs) were associated with significant reductions in the incidence of fatal mass shootings. Other laws commonly advocated as solutions to mass shootings—comprehensive background checks, assault weapons bans, and de‐regulation of civilian concealed carry of firearms—were unrelated to fatal mass shootings. Policy Implications Our findings suggest that laws requiring firearm purchasers to be licensed through a background check process supported by fingerprints and laws banning LCMs are the most effective gun policies for reducing fatal mass shootings.

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Right‐to‐Carry Laws and Violent Crime: A Comprehensive Assessment Using Panel Data and a State‐Level Synthetic Control Analysis

Cited by 145 publications

References 46 publications

Novel methods for the analysis of stepped wedge cluster randomized trials

Novel methods for the analysis of stepped wedge cluster randomized trials

Immigration enforcement, crime, and demography

Evidence concerning the regulation of firearms design, sale, and carrying on fatal mass shootings in the United States

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