This paper proposes a propagation prediction model of received power considering long term fading characteristics for urban microcellulr communications. Since the long term fading affects to the communication pe$ormance, it is important to predict the signal level accurately in the communication design and analysis. The received signal strength in urban microcell is usually constituted with the direct wave, the ground reflected wave, penetration effect and the diffracted waves, etc. We derive the empirical prediction formulas for the above parameters using measured and simulated data. By summing these parameters, we propose a relatively accurate prediction model considering long term fading signaljluctuation. It can be seen that the predicted is good agreement with the measured data.