Rising heat wave trends in large US cities

Habeeb, Dana; Vargo, Jason; Stone, Brian

doi:10.1007/s11069-014-1563-z

Cited by 245 publications

(167 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Extreme heat events in sprawling metro areas, including Atlanta, have increased at a faster rate than in compact metro areas (Stone et al, 2010). In Atlanta, the frequency and duration of heat waves have already significantly increased over the period from 1961-2010, like in other US cities, but the rate of increase in Atlanta has been higher than the national average (Habeeb et al, 2015). Assessment of the Atlanta population is thus timely and relevant.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Warm season temperatures and emergency department visits in Atlanta, Georgia

Winquist

Grundstein

Chang

et al. 2016

Environmental Research

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Purpose Extreme heat events will likely increase in frequency with climate change. Heat-related health effects are better documented among the elderly than among younger age groups. We assessed associations between warm-season ambient temperature and emergency department (ED) visits across ages in Atlanta during 1993-2012. Methods We examined daily counts of ED visits with primary diagnoses of heat illness, fluid/electrolyte imbalances, renal disease, cardiorespiratory diseases, and intestinal infections by age group (0-4, 5-18, 19-64, 65+ years) in relation to daily maximum temperature (TMX) using Poisson time series models that included cubic terms for TMX at single-day lags of 0-6 days, controlling for maximum dew-point temperature, time trends, week day, holidays, and hospital participation periods. We estimated rate ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for TMX changes from 27 °C to 32 °C (25th to 75th percentile) and conducted extensive sensitivity analyses. Results We observed associations between TMX and ED visits for all internal causes, heat illness, fluid/electrolyte imbalances, renal diseases, asthma/wheeze, diabetes, and intestinal infections. Age groups with the strongest observed associations were 65+ years for all internal causes [lag 0 RR (CI)=1.022 (1.016-1.028)] and diabetes [lag 0 RR=1.050 (1.008-1.095)]; 19-64 years for fluid/electrolyte imbalances [lag 0 RR=1.170 (1.136-1.205)] and renal disease [lag 1 RR=1.082 (1.065-1.099)]; and 5-18 years for asthma/wheeze [lag 2 RR=1.059 (1.030-1.088)] and intestinal infections [lag 1 RR=1.120 (1.041-1.205)]. Conclusions Varying strengths of associations between TMX and ED visits by age suggest that optimal interventions and health-impact projections would account for varying heat health impacts across ages.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Warm season temperatures and emergency department visits in Atlanta, Georgia

Winquist

Grundstein

Chang

et al. 2016

Environmental Research

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“…Habeeb et al 15 used the Daymet data set to validate temperature observations from airport stations in regards to their accuracy for urban areas. However, the Daymet dataset is based on the interpolation of the weather station data and the digital elevation model (DEM).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study on the association between ambient temperature and mortality using spatially resolved exposure data

Lee

Shi

Zanobetti

et al. 2016

Environmental Research

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There are many studies that have posited an association between extreme temperature and increased mortality. However, most studies use temperature at a single station per city as the reference point to analyze deaths. This leads to exposure misclassification and usually the exclusion of exurban, small town, and rural populations. In addition, few studies control for confounding by PM2.5, which is expected to induce upward bias. The high-resolution temperature and PM2.5 data at a resolution of 1 km2 were derived from satellite images and other land use sources. To capture the nonlinear association of temperature with mortality we fit a piecewise linear spline function for temperature, with a change in slope at −1 °C and 28 °C, the temperature threshold at which mortality in Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina increases due to cold and heat, respectively. We conducted stratified analyses by age group, sex, race, education, and urban vs nonurban, as well as sensitivity analyses of different temperature threshold and covariate sets. We found a 0.19% (95% CI = −0.98, 1.34%) increase in mortality for each 1 °C decrease in temperature below −1 °C and a 2.05% (95% CI = 0.87, 3.24%) increase in mortality for each 1°C increase in temperature above 28 °C, a 79.8% larger effect size for heat compared to the station-based metric. The effect estimates relying on the monitoring stations were 0.09% (95% CI = −0.79, 0.95%) and 1.14 % (95% CI = 0.08, 1.57%) for the equivalent temperature changes. The estimates were not confounded by PM2.5. Children under 15 years of age had the largest percentage increase per 1 °C increase in temperature (8.19%, 95% CI = −0.38 to 17.49%) followed by Blacks (4.35%, 95% CI = 2.22 to 6.53%). Higher education was a protective factor for the effect of extreme temperature on mortality. There was a suggestion that people in less urban areas were more susceptible to extreme temperature. The relationship between temperature and mortality was stronger when using exposure data with more spatial variability than using exposure data based on existing monitors alone.

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“…In a recent study, Habeeb et al [4] analyzed exposure to dangerously high temperatures in 50 large U.S. cities to understand changes over time in heat wave frequency, duration, intensity, and timing from 1961 to 2010. They used the National Climate Data Center (NCDC) heat event threshold, that is, as "any day in which the minimum, maximum or average apparent temperature exceeds the 85th percentile of the base period 1961-1990".…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temperature and Heat-Related Mortality Trends in the Sonoran and Mojave Desert Region

Austria

Bandala

2017

Atmosphere

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Extreme temperatures and heat wave trends in five cities within the Sonoran Desert region (e.g., Tucson and Phoenix, Arizona, in the United States and Ciudad Obregon and San Luis Rio Colorado, Sonora; and Mexicali, Baja California, in Mexico) and one city within the Mojave Desert region (e.g., Las Vegas, Nevada) were assessed using field data collected from 1950 to 2014. Instead of being selected by watershed, the cities were selected because they are part of the same arid climatic region. The data were analyzed for maximum temperature increases and the trends were confirmed statistically using Spearman's nonparametric test. Temperature trends were correlated with the mortality information related with extreme heat events in the region. The results showed a clear trend of increasing maximum temperatures during the months of June, July, and August for five of the six cities and statically confirmed using Spearman's rho values. Las Vegas was the only city where the temperature increase was not confirmed using Spearman's test, probably because it is geographically located outside of the Sonoran Desert or because of its proximity to the Hoover Dam. The relationship between mortality and temperature was analyzed for the cities of Mexicali, Mexico and Phoenix. Arizona.

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Rising heat wave trends in large US cities

Cited by 245 publications

References 52 publications

Warm season temperatures and emergency department visits in Atlanta, Georgia

Warm season temperatures and emergency department visits in Atlanta, Georgia

Study on the association between ambient temperature and mortality using spatially resolved exposure data

Temperature and Heat-Related Mortality Trends in the Sonoran and Mojave Desert Region

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