Rising Subnational Greenhouse Gas Emissions: A Challenge to Meeting Federal Climate Policy

Abstract

Policy makers in federated countries and the EU seeking to reduce total greenhouse gas emissions face a challenge when emissions are rising in some subnational jurisdictions. The magnitude of that challenge is influenced by the portion of total emissions represented by those jurisdictions, the rate of change in that portion, and the political power of those jurisdictions. This phenomenon is examined by a comparison of the role of rising-emission jurisdictions in the EU and Canada. We define a “rising-emission jurisdiction” as one in which emissions were higher in 2018 than in 1990, regardless of how its emissions may have risen or fallen between those dates. Those findings show that the role of rising-emission jurisdictions must be added to the factors identified in the literature explaining why between 1990 and 2018 EU emissions have declined by 25% while Canadian emissions have increased by 21%. To better understand this phenomenon and to help policy makers cope with it, more research is needed on its influence in other federated countries.