Rising Tides or Political Ripcurrents? Gentrification and Minority Representation in 166 Cities

Abstract

Transformative changes in urban economies are raising vital questions about minority representation. Given that cities are sites of political power for communities of color, gentrification and the housing affordability crisis threaten to deteriorate decades of progress. This paper considers the impact of these economic and demographic shifts on minority candidate success and supply. Collecting data on 166 city councils across several decades, we find that white population growth is associated with reductions in local political power for Black and Latino councilors. We also observe modest evidence that local economic improvements may not have deleterious effects on city council diversity. We probe these findings using data on local elections as well as over 380,000 tweets of city councilors, and uncover evidence of a candidate supply mechanism in the case of ``racial gentrification'' and a credit-claiming mechanism in the case of ``economic gentrification.'' We conclude by discussing the political implications of the cross-cutting effects we observe.