Risk

Fischhoff, Baruch; Kadvany, John

doi:10.1093/actrade/9780199576203.001.0001

Cited by 134 publications

(11 citation statements)

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“…Following the decision science paradigm, we asked questions that were sufficiently precise for the answers to inform individuals’ decision making and officials’ planning (when anticipating public behavior). In order to achieve that precision, most questions elicited quantitative estimates, thereby raising the possibility that they were too demanding for respondents . We addressed that possibility by examining the construct validity of their responses, interpreting consistent, plausible beliefs as meaning both that respondents had appropriate beliefs and that they could express them as required by the questions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Respondents’ generally consistent and sensible beliefs suggest that many had acquired a basic understanding of this unfamiliar pathogen, despite chaotic media coverage, often with intense affective content. As noted, there were theoretical reasons to expect both such understanding and its absence, depending on the interaction between the complex cognitive, affective, and social processes that Ebola could have evoked . In terms of affective processes, a post‐hoc explanation is that the reduced threat and less emotive reporting, at the time of the survey, may have allowed people to think more clearly, basing their judgments on what they had learned, rather than on how they felt .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Those messages should honor respondents’ strong desire for “honest, accurate information about the situation (even if that information worries people)” (Table SIV). If lay people can make quantitative estimates, as seen here, then they should also be able to absorb such information, if provided with properly developed and tested communications …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Public Understanding of Ebola Risks: Mastering an Unfamiliar Threat

et al. 2017

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Ebola was the most widely followed news story in the United States in October 2014. Here, we ask what members of the U.S. public learned about the disease, given the often chaotic media environment. Early in 2015, we surveyed a representative sample of 3,447 U.S. residents about their Ebola-related beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors. Where possible, we elicited judgments in terms sufficiently precise to allow comparing them to scientific estimates (e.g., the death toll to date and the probability of dying once ill). Respondents' judgments were generally consistent with one another, with scientific knowledge, and with their self-reported behavioral responses and policy preferences. Thus, by the time the threat appeared to have subsided in the United States, members of the public, as a whole, had seemingly mastered its basic contours. Moreover, they could express their beliefs in quantitative terms. Judgments of personal risk were weakly and inconsistently related to reported gender, age, education, income, or political ideology. Better educated and wealthier respondents saw population risks as lower; females saw them as higher. More politically conservative respondents saw Ebola as more transmissible and expressed less support for public health policies. In general, respondents supported providing "honest, accurate information, even if that information worried people." These results suggest the value of proactive communications designed to inform the lay public's decisions, thoughts, and emotions, and informed by concurrent surveys of their responses and needs.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Public Understanding of Ebola Risks: Mastering an Unfamiliar Threat

et al. 2017

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“…Large opinion surveys, such as this one, can be used as a form of initial assessment to observe the breadth of developing opinions. They allow opinions to be cataloged and aggregated using statistical methods to establish baseline observations that can be tracked over time (Fischhoff and Fischhoff 2001). There are, however, two important limitations of using surveys on topics for which public opinion is not well formed.…”

Section: Limitations Of Survey Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Public understanding of solar radiation management

Mercer

Keith

Sharp

2011

Environ. Res. Lett.

131

116

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We report the results of the first large-scale international survey of public perception of geoengineering and solar radiation management (SRM). Our sample of 3105 individuals in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom was recruited by survey firms that administer internet surveys to nationally representative population samples. Measured familiarity was higher than expected, with 8% and 45% of the population correctly defining the terms geoengineering and climate engineering respectively. There was strong support for allowing the study of SRM. Support decreased and uncertainty rose as subjects were asked about their support for using SRM immediately, or to stop a climate emergency. Support for SRM is associated with optimism about scientific research, a valuing of SRM's benefits and a stronger belief that SRM is natural, while opposition is associated with an attitude that nature should not be manipulated in this way. The potential risks of SRM are important drivers of public perception with the most salient being damage to the ozone layer and unknown risks. SRM is a new technology and public opinions are just forming; thus all reported results are sensitive to changes in framing, future information on risks and benefits, and changes to context.

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“…This study proposes a model to quantify the number of individuals according to their level of precariousness in Spain. Thus following Fischhoff and Kadvany (2011), it is necessary to measure the unknown in order to control it and to later improve it. The presented sociological problem uses the quantification issues suggested by Charlwood et al (2014) throughout a recently emerged population model (Goldthorpe, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Explaining the Rising Precariat in Spain

Poza

Sánchez

Merello

et al. 2020

Technological and Economic Development of Economy

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Spanish GDP indicator figures recover while the risk of poverty has not stopped increasing since 2007 given the continuous austerity policies adopted by Governments, while labour and welfare conditions have worsened. A new phenomenon is emerging: the flattening of the Spanish middle class.This study proposes a model to quantify the number of individuals according to their level of precariousness in Spain. The model allows us to predict the behaviour of society in Spain given the mimetic nature of humans by constructing a discrete finite epidemiological model that classifies and quantifies the population in Spain according to its risk of precariousness. Our results show a rise in the precariat of 3% (representing 39% of the total population at the end of the study). The relevance of this study lies in providing measures to governments that can mitigate the negative effects of this problem and stop its growth. Indeed tax measures to help firms to distribute their profits among employees and measures engaging a labour reform to establish limits to the rate of temporary jobs and working overtime should be considered.

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Risk

Cited by 134 publications

References 0 publications

Public Understanding of Ebola Risks: Mastering an Unfamiliar Threat

Public Understanding of Ebola Risks: Mastering an Unfamiliar Threat

Public understanding of solar radiation management

Explaining the Rising Precariat in Spain

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